The share of Moldovan products on Romania's black market for cigarettes rose by 5.4 percentage points to 23.8% in November 2025 - Novel Research
These figures were presented by the research company following an analysis of the illegal cigarette market as of November 2025. As noted by Marian Marcu, CEO of Novel Research, in terms of product origin, Bulgaria remains the primary source for the black market in Romania with a 30% share, but with a slight decrease of 5.1%. Moldova's share in November increased by 5.4 percentage points to 23.8%. Overall, the illegal cigarette market in Romania reached a record share in November for the last six years, with smuggling accounting for 12.6% of total consumption, compared to 9.6% in September (+3 p.p.). “In November, illegal trade grew in almost all regions of the country. The most significant increase was in the western region, by more than 10 p.p., making it the most affected by the black market with a share of 20.8%. In Bucharest and Ilfov, the black market also increased by more than 8 p.p., reaching 14.6%,” said Marian Marcu. At the same time, according to preliminary estimates by Novel Research, the average share of illegal cigarette trade in Romania in 2025 will be 10.6%, compared to 9% a year earlier. For the whole of 2025, the average annual figure for products originating in Bulgaria will be 31.4% - 10.1 p.p. more than in 2024, and for products from Moldova - 17.3% (-3.7 p.p.). At the same time, Romanian law enforcement agencies continue to fight smuggling: in the first 11 months of 2025, border police confiscated about 6.2 million packs of cigarettes worth more than 137 million Romanian lei. During the same period, more than 65 tons of tobacco and about 24 kg of hookah tobacco were also seized. In 2025 (up to November), the police dismantled 18 criminal groups. During this period, more than 142 million cigarettes and 3.4 tons of tobacco were seized, and 941 disciplinary penalties were imposed for minor offenses, amounting to 7.8 million lei. “The November data indicate an alarming increase in the black market for tobacco products. At the same time, according to StopContrabanda.ro, in 2025, the Romanian authorities confiscated about 210 million cigarettes with a market value of about 40 million euros. These figures demonstrate the scale and impact of this phenomenon and fully justify the inclusion of the fight against smuggling as a priority in the National Defense Strategy for 2025-2030,” said Ileana Dumitru, Head of Legal and External Relations in Southeast Europe at BAT. The key factor remains the price difference: illegal packs cost an average of 19.1 Romanian lei, compared to 27.3 lei on the legal market. “Illegal tobacco trade is on the rise again, and Romania's position on the EU's external border makes it particularly vulnerable. The proximity of active conflict zones and lower prices in neighboring non-EU countries continue to fuel smuggling, undermining the state budget and strengthening organized crime networks. In this context, any further increase in tobacco excise taxes risks accelerating the growth of the illegal market. Illegal trade must be addressed in the National Defense Strategy Implementation Plan, and law enforcement efforts must be supported by predictable, balanced tax policies adapted to Romania's purchasing power,” said Antonio Vencescla, Director of Corporate Affairs and Communications for JTI in Romania, Moldova, and Bulgaria. In turn, Roxana Pintea, Director of External Affairs at Philip Morris Romania, noted the strategic importance of the tobacco industry for the Romanian economy: it contributes around €5 billion to the budget annually, provides tens of thousands of jobs, makes a significant contribution to exports, and involves large ongoing investments. Tobacco companies, which are classified as large taxpayers, contribute more than 22 billion lei to the Romanian state budget each year, including excise duties, VAT, and other taxes and contributions. An analysis by Novel Research showed that Romania lost more than €500 million in tax revenue last year due to the illegal cigarette market. // 14.01.2026 – InfoMarket.
