In the coming years, Moldova will face a severe demographic crisis, the effects of which will be felt most acutely by the education system – Veaceslav Ioniță
In his weekly program, the economic policy expert at IDIS Viitorul stated that in the coming years, the number of students will decline sharply amid a collapse in the birth rate and internal migration from rural areas to cities. He noted that, although the total number of schoolchildren has remained relatively stable over the past decade—at around 335,000 children—the geographical distribution of the school population has changed significantly. While in the 2015–2016 school year there were 177,500 students in rural areas and 157,000 in cities, by the 2025–2026 school year the situation had changed dramatically: only 139,200 students remained in villages, while in cities there were already 195,500. “Until 2017, there were more schoolchildren in villages than in cities in Moldova. Today the situation is the opposite, and this trend will intensify. In the coming years, we will see an even stronger migration of schoolchildren to cities, while many rural schools will be left without students,” the expert stated. The bulk of this growth is concentrated in Chisinau. Over the past 10 years, the number of students in the capital has increased by more than 29,000—to 110,000 children. According to Veaceslav Ionita’s estimates, within the next two years, the number of schoolchildren in Chisinau could equal the total number of students in all of Moldova’s villages, and in three to four years, it could exceed that number. The expert notes that the real challenge will emerge in the coming years, when the education system begins to receive very small cohorts of children born in the last decade. “The number of children under the age of 6 has decreased from 258,100 in 2015 to 167,500 in 2025, and by 2030 it may drop to 138,600. “We currently have the lowest birth rate ever recorded in Moldova,” the expert noted. The consequences are already evident in the network of educational institutions. While there were 1,640 schools operating in Moldova during the 1990–1991 school year, there are now 1,173. “Over the past 35 years, nearly 470 educational institutions have closed in Moldova due to the decline in the number of children, and many schools continue to operate below capacity. The average school occupancy rate in the country is only 52.2%, and in many communities, school buildings stand nearly empty. There are localities where there are tens, and even more than 145 square meters of school space per student. Schools built for numerous generations of children have become too large for the current demographic reality,” said the expert, noting that student concentration is observed in the municipality of and the country’s major urban centers, such as Bălți, Ungheni, Orhei, Cahul, Comrat, Soroca, and Durlești. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced at the lyceum (high school) level—about 40% of all lyceum students in the country are concentrated in the capital. The expert warns that the education system will have to adapt quickly to new demographic realities, as declining birth rates and rural depopulation will continue to drive down student numbers and radically reshape Moldova’s educational landscape. // 05.06.2026 — InfoMarket
