Gas supplies to Moldova from Gazprom may completely stop in April and there is still a risk of unilateral termination of the contract due to non-compliance with the audit of the historical debt.
This is stated in the government materials to the approved decision of the Cabinet, which recommends extending the state of emergency throughout the country for another 60 days from April 5. The document says that there are still significant risks in the energy sector. Thus, Gazprom did not reserve enough capacities in the connection points for April as well, having reserved only 5.7 million cubic meters a day (daily guaranteed capacity) or 171 million cubic meters a month for Moldova, for consumers from both banks of the Nistru River, which is only 69.5% of the volume of natural gas, according to the contract between Moldovagaz and Gazprom for April. The contract stipulates supplies of 80 million cubic meters of natural gas to the right bank and 166 million cubic meters to the left bank of the Nistru. As the government notes, thus, the gas supplies from Gazprom to Moldova may be reduced by 30.5% as of April 1. The whole natural gas volume of 5.7 million cubic meters a day, reserved for April for Moldova by Gazprom, is planned to be directed by Moldovagaz to cover consumption of the left bank of the Nistru and for electric energy generation by the Moldavskaya GRES for the right bank. At the same time, despite the existence at present of the 5-year contract on delivery of natural gas between Moldovagaz and Gazprom, the risk of unilateral cancellation of the contract due to non-fulfillment of the audit of the historical debt remains. As the Cabinet of Ministers notes, in this regard, there is an unavoidable risk of reduction of natural gas supplies from Gazprom to Moldova by 30% or even 100% this month. In case of complete suspension of natural gas supplies from Gazprom to Moldova and, respectively, termination of the existing contract between the companies, the need for natural gas for the right bank will be covered by Energocom, but in case of the left bank of Nistru, it can lead to a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, and also to impossibility to supply the right bank of the Nistru with electricity from Moldavskaya GRES. It is emphasized that as a result of the war in Ukraine, the risk of impact on the natural gas transportation infrastructure in Ukraine remains, which may hinder the supply of natural gas to Moldova. Similarly, damage to certain segments of the electricity transmission infrastructure in Ukraine may create significant problems/risks in ensuring uninterrupted electricity supply to Moldova. There is still high dependence on the short-term contract for electric energy purchase signed with the Moldavskaya GRES, which generates electric energy only on the basis of the natural gas supplied by Gazprom. Moldavskaya GRES plays an important role in ensuring the stability of the Moldovan power system, especially during the shelling of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine. The government states that, thus, there remains a risk of lack of reliable and competitive (alternative) sources of electricity imports, in terms of their purchase at reasonable prices and transportation to Moldova, as electricity imports from Ukraine were suspended after Russian missiles attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and electricity imports from Romania do not guarantee affordable prices in the long term. The commercial capacity of only 700 MW allowed by ENTSO-E to import electricity at the Romanian-Moldovan border for the Ukraine-Moldova block (of which only 200 MW exclusively for Moldova) still does not guarantee the purchase of electricity to cover 100% of the necessary imports to cover right bank consumption of energy from Romania or other EU countries. // 29.03.2023 – InfoMarket
