Under a worst-case scenario, Moldovan farmers will have to pay up to 1 billion lei for higher fertilizer import prices in the second half of the year, or 3% of the total value of their output, estimated at 30-35 billion lei per year - Veaceslav Ioniță
This opinion was expressed by economic policy expert at IDIS Viitorul, who noted that the nearly 40% increase in fertilizer prices in March of this year is a direct consequence of the energy crisis, when rising oil prices led to higher gas prices, which is the primary raw material for the production of most fertilizers. Therefore, what we see today on international exchanges is almost automatically reflected in import prices in Moldova. The correlation is almost perfect, as with fuel. Veaceslav Ioniță stated that, at the same time, in February and March we are seeing an average increase in fertilizer prices of approximately 50%, with a clear peak in March. Most types of fertilizers used in our agriculture have become more expensive, laying the groundwork for additional pressure on agricultural costs in 2026. However, according to him, the direct impact on farmers is not yet that severe. The explanation is simple and has to do with the structure of imports. About half of the fertilizers are imported in the first quarter of the year, distributed relatively evenly: approximately 17% in each January, February, and March. January brought good prices, February saw a moderate increase, and only March saw a sudden price increase. In other words, only one-third of the annual requirement was purchased at high prices, which explains why the situation does not currently appear critical. However, as the expert emphasized, the experience of 2022-2023 shows what happens when prices remain high. In those years, the cost of imports rose to $70-75 million, almost double the usual level of around $40 million. However, this did not mean an increase in consumption; quite the opposite: smaller volumes were purchased at much higher prices. The result has been a reduction in fertilizer use and, indirectly, pressure on agricultural production. According to Veaceslav Ioniță, if the current international situation persists, the real problem is yet to come. In the second half of the year, Moldova will import fertilizers at prices that have already increased by approximately 50% compared to the beginning of the year. In a pessimistic scenario, farmers will have to pay an additional 1 billion lei. Compared to the size of the agricultural sector, this represents approximately 3% of the total value of produced goods, estimated at 30-35 billion lei per year. However, as the expert noted, the problem is not the percentage of income, but the fact that these costs are directly deducted from profits. In reality, such an increase could absorb a significant portion, or even most, of farmers' profits. Thus, Moldovan agriculture is simultaneously facing two shocks: an accelerated rise in diesel fuel prices and an increase in fertilizer prices. The first affects the immediate costs of agricultural work, while the latter directly impacts productivity and the final harvest. Veaceslav Ioniță emphasized that the situation is manageable in the short term. In the medium term, if prices remain high, the pressure will become severe. According to him, the only variable capable of offsetting this cost increase remains the classic one: a good agricultural year and favorable prices for agricultural products, as was the case in 2021. "In the absence of such a scenario, we are approaching a situation where fertilizers not only become more expensive but also directly undermine agricultural profitability. This is a crisis that is not immediately obvious, but which will become clear in the fall, when will we sum it up," the expert noted. // 30.03.2026 — InfoMarket
