The natural gas crisis in Moldova will last for a maximum of 2 years.
This forecast was published by the economic expert IDIS Viitorul Veaceslav Ionita. He noted that the gas crisis today is a problem not only for Moldova, but also for the entire region. However, this is not an economic problem, but a political one. According to the economist, this is not the first time Moldova has experienced a crisis situation related to the gas price, and if it is not possible to agree on a fair price for a new gas supply contract with Russia this year, then the price could be about $790 per thousand cubic meters, while in winter, according to the old formula, the price would have been on average $250. Veaceslav Ionita believes that the situation is difficult, but manageable. The most comfortable purchase price for gas for Moldova was in 2005-2006, when it was almost $80 per thousand cubic meters. In 2010, it rose to $250 due to the economic crisis. The all-time high was in 2013-2014, when the price reached $380. In 2016-2017 the price went down. And last year Moldova had the lowest purchase price over the past 15 years - $150 per thousand cubic meters of gas. However, this price was caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the current year, the situation is reversed, and there is speculation in the natural gas market. According to the economist, a separate investigation should be carried out to find out why a new pricing formula for gas supplies has appeared and instead of $250 per thousand cubic meters, Moldova must pay $790, and this is in the absence of a supply guarantee contract. The expert also stated that in the "bad" years in terms of energy, Moldova paid annually for the import of energy resources about $1.2 billion. Last year it paid less than $600 million, which is the lowest figure in 15 years. This year, if negotiations with the Russian Federation fail to be held in favor of our country, the price will reach $1 billion 240 million. Next year, the situation may deteriorate further and expenses will rise to $1 billion 450 million. After that, the situation will return to normal. The economic analyst also noted that the state must prepare to provide support to citizens during this time of crisis. If the gas tariff is increased almost twice - from 4.90 to 9 lei per 100 cubic meters, then the government will need to subsidize half of this increase - 2 or 2.5 lei. To pay subsidies, the government will need to allocate about 600 million lei. According to the expert, the price increase should be done gradually. The first increase should take place not earlier than December and by no more than 80%. The second increase should take place only after winter, so that residents in the summer, when gas consumption is low, can pay their bills and get used to the new prices. // 18.10.2021- InfoMarket.
