Moldova’s external deficit has narrowed, but its size still highlights the economy’s main weakness: the country consumes significantly more abroad than it earns in foreign markets. In the first quarter of 2026, the current account deficit stood at 806.2 million euros—nearly 21% of GDP for that peri11od. Although this figure is an improvement over last year, the ratio itself indicates that the external balance remains fragile.
The current account deficit fell by 17.1%, and its ratio to GDP decreased by 5 percentage points, to 20.9%. This improvement was driven by a reduction in the goods trade deficit and an increase in the surplus in services and primary income. At the same time, the surplus in secondary income—which includes, among other things, cash inflows without a corresponding provision of goods or services—decreased.
The overall positive trend therefore masks the same underlying structure: Moldova remains a major net importer of goods, and part of the gap is covered by services, income, and funds received from abroad. The economy is gradually increasing exports of certain product categories, but it does not yet produce enough goods and services to fully cover its own imports.
This is particularly evident in the context of domestic trade. In the first quarter, retail sales rose by 7.8% compared to the same period last year, services to households by 17.4%, and services to businesses by 4.6%. Growth in consumption and business activity is supporting the domestic economy, but part of the additional demand inevitably falls on imported goods, equipment, fuel, and raw materials.
In January–April, imports from European Union countries increased by 7.3% to 1.89 billion euros. The EU’s share of total imports rose from 55.21% to 56.04%. This reflects the deepening of economic ties with the European market, but at the same time shows that a trade reorientation alone does not eliminate external imbalances. The geography of supplies is changing, but the economy’s need for imported goods remains high.
Energy remains one of the most expensive categories. In the first four months of the year, Moldova imported energy resources worth 880.9 million euros—12.7% more than a year earlier. Natural gas accounted for 439.3 million euros, oil and petroleum products for 296 million, and electricity for 139.1 million euros. Collectively, energy resources accounted for more than a quarter of the country’s total imports.
This is precisely why Moldova’s trade deficit depends not only on the competitiveness of local businesses but also on the prices of natural gas, petroleum products, and electricity. Even if the physical volume of imports remains unchanged, rising energy prices rapidly increase the cost of imports and worsen the trade balance. Reducing this dependence takes time: it requires new generating capacity, energy efficiency, the modernization of enterprises, and the substitution of some imported resources.
There have also been positive developments. In January–April, food exports rose by 17.1% to 253.6 million euros. The bulk of this growth came from grains and grain products, whose exports increased by 34.3%, as well as fruits and vegetables, whose shipments rose by 9.6%.
However, the structure of these exports remains highly concentrated. Just two major groups—grains and fruits and vegetables—accounted for about 86.5% of food export revenue. This makes the outcome dependent on harvests, weather, international prices, and the availability of foreign markets. Growth in exports of raw materials and agricultural products improves the balance, but does not replace the expansion of production of goods with higher added value.
A comparison within the food sector is also telling. Despite the growth in exports, Moldova imported €411.6 million worth of food over four months—approximately €158 million more than it exported. Food imports declined by only 0.5%, so even this sector—traditionally considered one of the country’s export strengths—remains a major consumer of foreign products.
This external gap must not only be recorded but also financed. In the first quarter, the net inflow of funds on the financial account amounted to 641.7 million euros. This was driven by both a €264.2 million decrease in residents’ external financial assets and a €377.5 million increase in their liabilities to non-residents. In other words, the gap was covered not only by capital inflows but also by the use of a portion of assets held outside the country.
At the same time, Moldova’s net external position improved slightly. As of the end of March, the difference between the country’s external liabilities and financial assets stood at 6.62 billion euros, or 36.5% of GDP, down 3.7% since the beginning of the year. External assets rose to 7.33 billion euros, while liabilities rose to 13.95 billion euros.
However, this improvement is not solely attributable to trade results or new investments. Exchange rate and other changes played a significant role. The National Bank specifically points to an increase in household cash and deposits linked to informal inflows of foreign currency, the mechanism behind which cannot be determined based on available data. Therefore, the improvement in the international investment position should not automatically be interpreted as a result of the strengthening of the export sector.
The reduction in the current account deficit is undoubtedly a positive sign. But a single figure is not enough to speak of a sustainable change. What matters is what is driving the reduction in the gap: growth in exports and productivity, import substitution, and the attraction of long-term investment—or financial inflows, changes in asset values, and the use of accumulated resources.
So far, the data paint a mixed picture. Consumption and services are growing, exports in certain categories are increasing, and the deficit is shrinking. At the same time, imports from the EU and energy expenditures are rising, external liabilities significantly exceed assets, and trade in goods continues to account for the main shortfall.
The key question is when Moldova will be able to change the nature of its deficit—earning more from exports of goods and services, becoming less dependent on imported energy, and channeling external financing into production, which will subsequently generate foreign exchange earnings on its own.//July 14, 2026 – InfoMarket.