Annual inflation in Moldova reached 8.6% in September, up from 6.96% in August, exceeding the upper limit of the National Bank's target range of 6.5% for the second consecutive month. In September alone, consumer prices rose by 1.66%, with increases in natural gas rates accounting for about two-thirds of that rise. However, the September statistics do not yet reflect the sharp rise in heating and gas prices starting in October; there remains a risk of electricity rate hikes; and, starting in January 2027, the minimum wage in the real sector of the economy is set to increase by 20.6%. Thus, inflation is accelerating even before all the new costs faced by households and businesses are reflected in prices.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices rose by 6.62% over the first nine months of 2026, compared with 4.89% during the same period last year. On an annual basis, food prices rose by 5.12%, non-food goods by 8.97%, and services by 12.56%. Energy prices rose particularly sharply: diesel fuel prices rose by 76.4% over the year, gasoline by 42.3%, coal by 33%, and liquefied gas by 22.3%. The cost of passenger transportation increased by 29.8%.
Natural gas was the main factor behind the September spike in inflation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), its regulated price in the consumer price index rose by 40.8% over the month, accounting for about 1.1 percentage points of the total price increase of 1.66%. In effect, a single tariff decision accounted for roughly two-thirds of the month's inflation.
The next step was an increase in centralized heating rates. Starting in October, the cost of heat for consumers of Termoelectrica and CET-Nord rose by 53–62%. The new rates have not yet been included in the September consumer price index. Moreover, in September, the NBS still reported a 17% decrease in the cost of heat compared to the same month last year. This figure will now begin to change as the new rates are reflected in consumers' bills.
Additional uncertainty surrounds electricity. Over the past 12 months, regulated electricity rates have already risen by 23.7%. Rising gas prices are increasing costs for combined heat and power plants, and Moldova's dependence on electricity imports persists. Therefore, the risk of another tariff adjustment remains. The extent of this adjustment will depend on procurement costs, the energy supply structure, and decisions by the National Agency for Energy Regulation (ANRE).
The country's energy dependence is also clearly evident in foreign trade statistics. From January through July 2026, Moldova imported energy resources worth 1.39 billion euros, which is 14.5% more than a year earlier. Gas, petroleum products, coal, and electricity accounted for nearly 24% of total merchandise imports. For an economy that purchases a significant portion of its energy consumption from abroad, changes in international prices and supply conditions directly affect domestic production costs.
Against this backdrop, the minimum wage in the real sector of the economy is scheduled to increase from 6,300 to 7,600 lei, or by 20.6%, starting in January 2027. For workers, this increase in income should at least partially offset the rising cost of living. For employers, it represents yet another increase in costs, coming on the heels of a significant rise in the cost of energy, transportation, and utilities, as well as tax hikes starting in 2027.
This creates a vicious cycle: rising utility rates and consumer prices require wage increases, while higher labor costs put additional pressure on the prices of goods and services. Moreover, higher wages do not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in purchasing power, since a significant portion of the raise will be absorbed by further price increases.
In this situation, the National Bank faces a difficult challenge. Its medium-term goal is to keep inflation within the target range: 5%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points—that is, between 3.5% and 6.5% annually. However, the main sources of inflationary pressure currently lie beyond the direct reach of monetary policy. The NBM's base rate cannot lower the purchase price of natural gas, reverse increases in heating rates, or compensate businesses for rising labor costs.
At the same time, the regulator must take into account not only the immediate effect of tariff decisions but also the likelihood that rising costs will spill over to other goods and services. The longer elevated inflation persists, the greater the risk that businesses will begin to factor expected cost increases into their prices in advance, and that workers will demand another wage increase.
September's inflation rate of 8.6% already significantly exceeds the National Bank's target. In 2026, the NBM has already raised the base rate four times—from 5% to 9% per annum: on May 7 to 6.5%, on June 18 to 7%, on August 6 to 7.5%, and on September 17—to 9%. A further acceleration in inflation may require another tightening of monetary policy, which will increase the cost of borrowing for businesses and households. Meanwhile, domestic decisions on utility rates and wages are now compounding the rising cost of imported energy resources.
Moldova is entering 2027 with rising utility rates, increasing business costs, higher taxes, and new wage obligations. However, neither wage increases nor utility rate adjustments alone ensure growth in economic productivity. As a result, measures intended to offset the rising cost of living may become an additional source of inflation. In that case, part of the wage increases will once again be eroded by rising prices, and bringing inflation back to the target range of 3.5–6.5% will be postponed indefinitely. If inflationary pressures persist, the National Bank may be forced to raise the base rate again, which will make loans more expensive and further complicate the financing of businesses and investments. // 12.10.2026 – InfoMarket.