Moldova's economic agenda for the coming days is packed with decisions that could reshape taxation, investment and trade, while fresh data point to mixed external demand and ongoing pressure on inflation and growth. The full briefing also tracks major financing for infrastructure and agriculture, new business projects, and several policy moves that may affect companies and households alike.
The IMF has updated its economic projections for Moldova for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts while revising downward its outlook for the longer term. The Fund has also adjusted its inflation expectations and external imbalance parameters, indicating continued pressure on the country's economy.
On the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, a delegation from the National Bank of Moldova discussed with its partners a new cooperation program, as well as measures to curb inflation and strengthen financial stability. The talks focused on the country's macroeconomic outlook, its vulnerability to external shocks, and next steps in reforms critical to European integration.
With a monthly inflation rate of 1.66% in September 2026, Moldova ranked second in terms of the consumer price index among the European and regional countries analyzed by the National Bank of Moldova
Annual inflation in Moldova accelerated in September and has remained above the National Bank's target range for the second consecutive month. The most significant price increases were seen in certain categories of goods, fuel, and regulated services, although price trends varied across different segments.
The World Bank expects economic growth in Europe and Central Asia to slow in the coming years amid pressure from high energy prices, weak external demand, and ongoing uncertainty. The new report also notes significant differences among subregions: some economies are remaining resilient thanks to domestic demand and investment, while others are facing a more pronounced slowdown in business activity.
The World Bank has updated its assessment of Moldova's economic outlook for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts and slightly improving another. The new report also highlights the factors that continue to hold back growth and the conditions that will determine the economy's trajectory in the medium term.
In Moldova, there is discussion of a sharp change in the tax burden on sugar, which, according to industry estimates, could have a significant impact on both consumer prices and the stability of the entire sector. Producers are warning of risks to the domestic market, investment, and employment, as well as potential consequences for the supply chain and competition with imports.
The EBRD maintained its GDP growth forecast for Moldova at 2.8% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027
The National Bank of Moldova notes that the banking sector remains stable, even though credit risk continues to be a key source of pressure. At the same time, there is still sufficient liquidity in the system, and recent data on lending, portfolio quality, and the housing market show noticeable changes in the behavior of borrowers and banks.
Sergiu Padure, Chief Economist at Moldindconbank
Following the increase in Moldova's base interest rate, experts are warning of a difficult period ahead for the economy: stagflation is possible amid inflationary pressures and fiscal imbalances. At the same time, the forecast also suggests a more long-term prospect for stabilization if monetary and fiscal policies are implemented in a coordinated manner.
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