In Moldova, sectoral indicators pointed to an improvement in economic activity in the third quarter of 2026, although the regulator also noted factors that could intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months. In explaining its latest monetary policy decision, the National Bank highlighted trends in production, trade, transportation, and consumer demand, as well as changes in foreign trade.
The National Bank of Moldova has once again raised its benchmark interest rate, bringing it to its highest level in the past three and a half years. The decision reflects a noticeable tightening of monetary policy: this article examines how the rate has changed in recent months and what levels the regulator has set in the past.
The National Bank of Moldova noted that the balance of risks for inflation in the medium term remains tilted toward rising prices, although the situation may change by the end of the forecast horizon. The regulator attributes this to external uncertainty and a number of domestic factors, and a new inflation review with an updated forecast will be published in the coming days.
Annual inflation in Moldova in September 2026 stood at 8.6%, up by 1.64 percentage points, compared to the previous month and, for the second consecutive month, exceeded the upper limit of the NBM's target range (5% ±1.5 percentage points)
The National Bank of Moldova has once again tightened monetary policy by raising the benchmark rate and adjusting a number of related instruments. The decision was made amid accelerating inflation and revised forecasts, though the regulator left reserve requirement ratios unchanged.
The IMF raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2026 from 1.5% to 1.7%, while lowering its forecast for 2027 from 2.3% to 2%
The IMF presented Moldova with recommendations on improving public financial management, with an emphasis on domestic debt sustainability, improving tax administration, reducing the budget deficit, and ensuring the sustainability of public investments
Moldova's economic outlook has been revised as inflation pressures remain elevated and growth expectations soften, while businesses continue to face weak demand, financing constraints and labor shortages. At the same time, authorities are moving on energy market rules, infrastructure projects and new support measures for SMEs, with several regulatory and financing changes set to shape the months ahead.
An IMF mission will return to Moldova later this month to review recent economic developments and discuss the authorities' policy priorities, with talks expected to cover the next steps on macroeconomic and financial stability. The visit comes after earlier discussions on a new medium-term program and against a backdrop of shifting growth, inflation and external balance forecasts.
The IMF has updated its economic projections for Moldova for the coming years, maintaining one of its key forecasts while revising downward its outlook for the longer term. The Fund has also adjusted its inflation expectations and external imbalance parameters, indicating continued pressure on the country's economy.
On the sidelines of the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, a delegation from the National Bank of Moldova discussed with its partners a new cooperation program, as well as measures to curb inflation and strengthen financial stability. The talks focused on the country's macroeconomic outlook, its vulnerability to external shocks, and next steps in reforms critical to European integration.
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