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Macroeconomics

• The IMF maintained its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2026 at 1.5%, but lowered its 2027 projection from 3.2% to 2.3%. Average annual inflation is forecast at 7.4% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, while the current account deficit is expected to reach 22% and 22.8% of GDP, respectively.

Foreign Economy and Trade

• Moldova's exports to countries outside the EU and CIS rose by 14.4% in January–July to €553.5 million, while imports from these countries increased by 6.6% to €2.49 billion. Exports to Turkey grew by 27.3% to €237.5 million, and imports from China rose by 13% to €827.4 million.

• Wheat exports in July–September reached 605,500 tonnes (+25% year-on-year), worth 2.27 billion lei; more than 70% went to the EU. Since the beginning of the year, Moldova has also exported nearly 40,000 tonnes of plums worth over €24 million, with almost 80% shipped to the EU.

Government Regulation

• The government supports increasing VAT for HoReCa from 8% to 12%, applying a 12% rate to most agricultural products and eliminating the reduced rate for poultry meat; Parliament must make the final decision. An 8% rate for wheat, corn and sunflower seeds may be temporarily retained, subject to a reverse taxation mechanism.

• The Cabinet opposes reducing VAT on beet sugar to 12% and supports an excise tax on sweetened beverages: 1.6 lei per litre in 2027, 1.76 lei in 2028 and 1.94 lei in 2029.

• Starting November 1, the State Tax Service will move the Single Reporting Window to a new platform; tax reporting procedures will remain unchanged.

International Relations

• At the Moldova–EU intergovernmental conference on October 13, negotiations were scheduled to open on the "Internal Market" and "Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth" clusters. Moldova intends to open the remaining clusters by the end of 2026.

• The Ministry of Finance and the National Bank of Moldova discussed the upcoming IMF mission and a three-year Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) without a financing component; the mission's visit date has not yet been announced.

Investments and Projects

• The EBRD will provide €102.9 million to modernize centralized irrigation infrastructure: €49.8 million for the Puhăcenii de Sus and Masivul Căușeni systems, covering about 6,900 hectares and approximately 300 farmers; another €53.1 million will finance other systems.

• In the first nine months, ODA approved 203 million lei in grants for 432 projects expected to generate about 396 million lei in investment and 2,330 jobs; 149 million lei was actually disbursed to 577 companies.

• Investment projects exceeding €350 million were announced at Moldova Business Week, including MHP's plans to invest at least €20 million in poultry processing and Balkan Pharmaceuticals' €22–25 million pharmaceutical and medical technology park.

Banking and Finance

• OTP Bank Moldova has financed renewable energy projects with total capacity exceeding 100 MW and participates in the EBRD's €42 million EU4Business program. The bank's corporate loan portfolio grew by an average of 23% annually in 2023–2026.

Agriculture

• Moldova Fruct said purchase prices for apples and plums intended for processing do not cover production costs and risk halting investment in orchards. Processors cited falling prices for finished products and rising costs.

• Investors from the UAE are considering large agricultural projects in Moldova but require a contiguous land area of at least 10,000 hectares; the Investment Agency cannot currently offer such a site.

Business and Companies

• Construction companies called for an end to delays in approving zoning plans and permits and for a review of the levy equal to 0.5% of construction investment. The government promised to examine the levy mechanism and access to utility networks.

Social Economy

• A new EcoVoucher phase has a budget of 57 million lei: 8,120 families can receive vouchers worth 7,000 lei by November 1 for energy-efficient household appliances, covering up to 70% of their cost.

• The government is prepared to support raising the enhanced personal income tax exemption in 2027 from 34,620 to 46,680 lei and the child exemption from 9,900 to 11,040 lei; the amendments still need to complete the legislative process.

The Day in Figures

1.5% — 2026 GDP growth forecast.

€553.5 million — exports outside the EU and CIS.

€102.9 million — EBRD irrigation loan.

€2.49 billion — imports outside the EU and CIS.

203 million lei — ODA grants approved.

605,500 tonnes — wheat exports in July–September.

€350 million — investments announced at MBW.

57 million lei — budget for the new EcoVoucher phase.

AGENDA

• On October 15 at 10:00 a.m., the government will meet to consider tax and customs amendments, loans for vocational education modernization, energy efficiency and agricultural machinery, and rules on phytosanitary products and excise stamps.

• On October 15, the National Bureau of Statistics will publish January–August foreign trade data and August company sales based on VAT declarations; the Moldagrotech and Farmer exhibitions will open.

• Moldova AI Hub will launch at Tekwill on October 15–16; the founding documents are scheduled to be signed on October 15.

• Applications for the privatization auction of the Zarea Hotel, with a starting price of 106 million lei, are accepted until October 19; the auction is scheduled for October 20.