The EBRD has maintained its GDP growth forecast for Moldova for 2026 and 2027
The EBRD maintained its GDP growth forecast for Moldova at 2.8% for 2026 and 3.5% for 2027
GDP
Moldova's GDP in the First Half of 2026: Moderate Growth, but with Important Signs
Sergiu Padure, Chief Economist at Moldindconbank
Moldova's GDP grew by 0.6% in the first half of 2026
Moldova's economy continued to grow in the first half of the year, and the latest data from statistics agencies and the National Bank indicate that this positive trend continued into the second quarter. At the same time, when making its decision on the interest rate, the regulator specifically noted changes in key sectors, foreign trade, and consumer activity, which together paint a picture of recovery.
Grants to Moldova increased by nearly 77 percent in 2025
In 2025, the amount of grants received by Moldova increased significantly, with the bulk of the funds directed toward supporting the state budget. The report on foreign aid also notes a high rate of disbursement of these resources and the growing role of international financing in the context of reforms and European integration.
Moldova's GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be lower than initially forecast
Moldova's GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be 1.8%, rather than the 2.4% projected when the draft law on the 2026 state budget was being prepared.
Moldova's national debt will rise to 162.9 billion lei by the end of 2026
Moldova's national debt, according to forecasts, as of December 31 will not exceed 162 billion 886.3 million lei and will increase by 6 billion 853.3 million lei compared to the amount approved for 2026, mainly due to an increase in external public debt
Moldova plans to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of GDP by 2027
The Moldovan government aims to reduce the state budget deficit in 2027 to 3% of GDP from an expected 5.95% of GDP in 2026 – Vasile Tofan
The Moldovan government has increased the 2026 state budget deficit to 23 billion lei
The Moldovan government has approved amendments to the 2026 State Budget Law, which provide for an increase in the budget deficit by 2 billion 171.8 million lei—to 23 billion 071.8 million lei (5.95% of GDP)
Fitch affirmed Moldova's rating and lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Moldova's rating at B+ with a stable outlook and lowered its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 1.7%
Living conditions in Moldova have improved, but part of the economy has not returned to the level it was at 35 years ago
Living conditions, well-being, and infrastructure in Moldova have improved, but indicators for some economic sectors have not reached pre-independence levels over the past 35 years—Veaceslav Ioniţă
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