Moldova's GDP in the first half of 2026 increased by 0.6% in real terms compared to the same period in 2025, totaling 165.78 billion lei. However, this growth was not driven by economic sectors. Total gross value added (GVA) remained virtually unchanged, and the entire 0.6% increase in GDP was driven by net taxes on products. Excluding the tax component, the economy effectively remained at last year's level at the end of the first half of the year.
At the same time, there was a noticeable shift within the economy between growing and shrinking sectors. The manufacturing sector increased its gross value added by 6.4% and contributed 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth. The production and supply of electricity, heat, and gas grew by 16.2% and contributed another 0.3 percentage points. Agriculture increased its GVA by 7.9% and also contributed about 0.3 percentage points to growth, while trade grew by 1.6%, contributing another 0.2 percentage points.
However, this growth was almost entirely offset by declines in other major sectors. The information and communications technology (ICT) sector had the strongest negative impact. Its gross value added fell by 8%, which reduced GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points. Construction contracted by 9.7%, subtracting another 0.5 percentage points, while real estate activities fell by 4.2%, or 0.4 percentage points. In the education sector, the decline was 2.7%, which reduced GDP growth by another 0.2 percentage points.
Thus, growth in industry, agriculture, energy, and trade was insufficient to drive an increase in the economy's total value added. The positive performance of these sectors was almost entirely offset by declines in ICT, construction, real estate, and a number of other sectors.
The investment component also remains mixed. In the first half of the year, gross fixed capital formation declined by 1.4% in real terms and reduced GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points. For an economy that needs to modernize its production and infrastructure and boost productivity, a decline in investment is one of the most significant constraints on further growth.
In the second quarter, however, the situation changed: gross fixed capital formation rose by 3.2% compared to the second quarter of 2025 and contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth. But for the first half of the year as a whole, investment still remained below last year's level.
Exports provided significant support to the economy. In the first half of the year, their physical volume increased by 12.2%, contributing 3.8 percentage points to GDP growth. At the same time, imports of goods and services rose by 3.1% and reduced the final figure by 2 percentage points.
Household consumption, which remains the largest component of the economy, increased by only 1.5% and contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth. Its share in the GDP expenditure structure was 85.9%.
In the second quarter, GDP grew by 0.9% compared to the same period in 2025—slightly faster than in the first quarter. However, the structure of growth remains mixed here as well. The manufacturing sector grew by 6.7%, agriculture by 9.4%, the energy sector by 20.9%, and financial and insurance activities by 5.8%. At the same time, the ICT sector contracted by 7.9%, construction by 7.5%, and education by 5.3%.
In the second half of the year, tax revenue may receive additional support due to a sharp increase in domestic energy prices. Effective September 1, the regulated price of natural gas for consumers connected to low-pressure networks rose from 13,353 to 18,798 lei per 1,000 cubic meters, excluding VAT—that is, by 40.8%. Consequently, for the same physical volume of consumption, the amount of VAT charged on the cost of gas also increases. This means that more expensive gas will increase the tax burden on the economy in the second half of the year, although this effect alone does not indicate growth in production or consumption. Moreover, the public has already been warned that electricity and heating rates will rise following the increase in gas prices.
Formally, GDP grew in the first half of 2026, but the entire increase was driven by net taxes on goods, while the economy's total value added remained virtually unchanged. This "growth" is not underpinned by broad-based expansion of the production base.
The nearly 41% increase in gas prices for consumers effective September 1, 2026, increases the likelihood that the tax factor will remain significant in the second half of the year as well. If the current structure of the economy does not change significantly (and there are no clear indications that it will), then GDP growth in the second half of 2026 and for the year as a whole will most likely once again be driven primarily by the tax component rather than by an expansion of aggregate value added. // 16.09.2026 – InfoMarket.