Accordingly, GDP in nominal terms is expected to total 388 billion lei, instead of the previously projected 377.2 billion lei. This is stated in the Ministry of Finance's materials accompanying the draft amendments to the 2026 State Budget Law approved by the government. The average annual inflation rate has been raised from 4.3% (at the time the 2026 budget was drafted) to 7.3% (as of the current budget revisions). At the same time, the year-end inflation forecast has been raised from 4.6% to 8.2%. The projected average annual leu-to-dollar exchange rate for 2026 was adjusted from 17.59 to 17.54 lei per dollar, and for the end of the year—from 17.84 to 17.77 lei per dollar. Meanwhile, export growth this year is expected to reach 15% instead of 7.6%, as projected when the 2026 budget was drafted, and in monetary terms, it will amount to $4.35 billion instead of the projected $4.05 billion. Conversely, the import growth forecast was revised downward from 9.9% to 9.2%, while the value of expected imports was raised from $11.7 billion to $11.93 billion. Thus, Moldova's trade deficit in 2026 is expected to amount to $7.58 billion instead of the previously projected $7.65 billion. The projected growth rate for industrial production has been increased from 3.5% to 5%, and in monetary terms, from 106.3 billion to 110.8 billion lei. At the same time, the projected growth rate for agricultural production has been raised from 1% to 6.5%, and in monetary terms—from 53 billion to 55.2 billion lei. Meanwhile, the forecast for growth in investment in fixed assets has been lowered. It is expected to amount to 5.5% instead of the 20.8% projected when the state budget law for the current year was drafted, and in monetary terms, 58.1 billion lei instead of 64.1 billion lei. The average monthly salary in 2026 is projected to be 17,000 lei instead of 17,400 lei, and its year-over-year growth will be 11% instead of the expected 11.5%. As noted in materials from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization recently revised its forecast for macroeconomic indicators for 2026, taking into account the latest available statistical data reflecting the evolution of the national and global economies this year. At the same time, the macroeconomic forecast remains subject to risks, including those related to the worsening of the hydrological and energy crises, increased geopolitical tensions, and the persistence of adverse weather conditions, factors that could negatively impact the growth dynamics of the national economy in the medium term. // 04.09.2026 — InfoMarket