In Moldova, sectoral indicators pointed to an improvement in economic activity in the third quarter of 2026, although the regulator also noted factors that could intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months. In explaining its latest monetary policy decision, the National Bank highlighted trends in production, trade, transportation, and consumer demand, as well as changes in foreign trade.
The National Bank of Moldova has once again raised its benchmark interest rate, bringing it to its highest level in the past three and a half years. The decision reflects a noticeable tightening of monetary policy: this article examines how the rate has changed in recent months and what levels the regulator has set in the past.
The National Bank of Moldova has once again tightened monetary policy by raising the benchmark rate and adjusting a number of related instruments. The decision was made amid accelerating inflation and revised forecasts, though the regulator left reserve requirement ratios unchanged.
Moldova's fiscal position, energy security measures and market trends are all moving in notable directions, with fresh data on budget execution, gas procurement and major infrastructure projects. The full review also highlights new tax rules, financing opportunities and sharp shifts in housing and transport activity that could matter for businesses and households alike.
The IMF raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2026 from 1.5% to 1.7%, while lowering its forecast for 2027 from 2.3% to 2%
Moldova will open its negotiating position on one of the key chapters concerning economic and monetary policy to public discussion as part of its process of alignment with the EU. Authorities expect that the upcoming harmonization of regulations will affect the functioning of the financial system, the independence of the regulator, and approaches to public finance management.
Moldova's authorities moved on several fronts, from energy financing and power-grid projects to business regulation, privatisation and financial-sector rules. At the same time, new trade data, a proposed medicine-pricing reform and measures following recent cyber incidents point to a busy policy agenda with implications for companies and consumers alike.
According to analysts, Moldova's economy has entered a phase of stagnation: leading indicators have deteriorated, and key growth drivers have begun to lose momentum. Against the backdrop of weakening foreign trade, a slowdown in industrial production, and accelerating inflation, experts have revised their GDP forecasts for next year downward significantly.
Managers at Moldovan companies generally expect business activity to remain stable at the end of 2026, although forecasts vary significantly across a number of sectors. The survey also reveals which factors are currently the greatest constraints on business and where companies expect the most significant price increases and improvements in performance.
Moldova's economic outlook has been revised as inflation pressures remain elevated and growth expectations soften, while businesses continue to face weak demand, financing constraints and labor shortages. At the same time, authorities are moving on energy market rules, infrastructure projects and new support measures for SMEs, with several regulatory and financing changes set to shape the months ahead.
Moldova's Minister of Finance, Victoria Belous, discussed with the IMF Mission the preparation of next year's state budget, wage policy, public expenditure planning, tax policy measures, and public debt management
In Moldova, the first half of the year saw an increase in investment in long-term assets, with the business sector continuing to account for the bulk of these investments. However, trends varied by source of financing and type of asset: some sectors saw significant growth, while others contracted amid external uncertainty.
An IMF mission has begun its work in Moldova and will discuss with the government its economic policy priorities and reforms, as well as further support from the Fund
Moldova's economy showed a mixed picture in the latest data, with retail and industrial activity moving higher while some external trade and investment indicators weakened. At the same time, the authorities are advancing a new round of regulatory changes, market reforms and privatization plans that could reshape conditions for businesses in several sectors.
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