The National Bank of Moldova raised its benchmark interest rate by 2 percentage points at once—from 9% to 11% per annum. Since last December, the rate has more than doubled, yet inflation remains high, and the forecast for next year has been revised downward again. The NBM is attempting to curb price increases—largely driven by energy prices, regulated tariffs, and external markets—by focusing primarily on domestic demand. For businesses, this means more expensive financing at a time when the government is counting on an acceleration in investment and economic growth.
The decision on November 5 marked the fifth rate hike in 2026. In December 2025, it stood at 5%; in May, it rose to 6.5%; in June, to 7%; in August, to 7.5%; in September, to 9%; and has now reached 11%. At the same time, the overnight lending rate was raised to 13%, and the overnight deposit rate to 9%. Banks' reserve requirement ratios were left unchanged.
In September, annual inflation reached 8.6%, up from 6.96% in August, significantly exceeding the NBM's target range of 3.5%–6.5%. The National Bank raised its forecast for average annual inflation in 2026 from 7.2% to 7.3% and for 2027 from 6.2% to 6.9%. The regulator does not expect annual inflation to return to the target range until the third quarter of next year.
A distinctive feature of the current situation is the source of inflationary pressure. The NBM itself attributes the downward revision of the forecast to an expected increase in regulated tariffs, as well as rising international prices for oil and food. At the same time, inflation in the third quarter turned out to be lower than the previous forecast, mainly due to the postponement of the natural gas rate adjustment. Consequently, part of the expected price increase is still to come.
The goal of raising the base rate is to limit the spread of the initial price shock to other goods and services. Rising energy costs increase business expenses, affect selling prices, and influence inflation expectations. By tightening monetary policy, the NBM aims to prevent these trends from becoming entrenched.
The regulator has reason for concern. In the third quarter, the volume of new loans to individuals in lei rose by 10.5% year-over-year, the total volume of new loans increased by 12.2%, and retail sales in July–August grew by 16.4%. These indicators point to the resilience of domestic demand, which, along with external factors, could fuel inflation.
An increase in the minimum wage could be an additional factor. Employers and labor unions have agreed to raise the minimum wage in the real sector of the economy to 7,600 lei as of January 1, 2027—an increase of more than 20% (currently 6,300 lei). At the same time, the government is preparing a decision on the national minimum wage. Higher wages will increase workers' incomes, but for companies with a high proportion of low-wage employees, this means additional costs. If these costs are not offset by increased productivity, some of them may be passed on to prices. Rising household incomes could also bolster consumer demand, which the NBM is seeking to curb.
The consequences of previous decisions are already evident in the banking system. In the third quarter, the weighted average interest rate on new loans in the national currency reached 9.17%, and on new time deposits, 5.74%. Bank liquidity remains relatively high, although the excess is shrinking. For businesses, access to financing is determined not only by the availability of funds at banks but also by interest rates, borrower requirements, and loan terms.
The METRIX 4 study, published on November 5 and prepared by AmCham Moldova, illustrates the scale of the problem. Access to financing received one of the lowest ratings from businesses—3.88 out of 10—down by 0.78 points compared to the previous study, released in May 2026. Fifty-three percent of companies in the national sample and 58% of surveyed AmCham members consider access to financing to be limited. These ratings were obtained even before the November increase in the base rate.
Differences in companies' investment intentions are also significant. Among companies in the national sample that rate access to financing as good, 44.8% intend to increase investments over the next 12 months. Among companies with limited access to financing, the figure is only 24.7%. This does not mean that the difference is explained solely by the cost of loans, but it does demonstrate the link between financial conditions and opportunities for business growth.
For businesses, the rising cost of working capital—needed to purchase raw materials, build inventories, and pay suppliers—is particularly acute. Rising interest expenses may force companies to adjust prices, reduce profits, or scale back operations. In long-term projects, the high cost of borrowed funds reduces the projected return on investment. Small and medium-sized businesses, which have fewer internal resources and limited access to external financing, are particularly vulnerable.
For the general public, the consequences depend on the terms of their loan agreements. New mortgage and consumer loans may gradually become more expensive, and payments on existing variable-rate loans may be adjusted. Herewith, a 2-percentage-point increase in the base rate does not automatically mean that all bank rates will rise by the same amount: monetary policy takes effect with a lag.
A contradiction arises between two strands of economic policy. The government intends to stimulate investment and the modernization of enterprises, including through the European Growth Plan. The National Bank, in fulfilling its mandate to ensure price stability, is restricting demand. In the long term, low inflation is necessary for sustainable development, but in the coming quarters, high borrowing costs may hinder the implementation of investment projects.
Since December 2025, the base rate has risen by 6 percentage points, but the full effect of this tightening has not yet materialized. The National Bank is capable of limiting the secondary effects of inflation, but it does not eliminate the external causes of price increases. As a result, businesses risk facing higher costs for resources, labor, and financing all at once. The combination of these factors will determine the economic cost of fighting inflation. // 06.11.2026 - InfoMarket.