The EBRD has raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 by 1 percentage point, from 1.5% to 2.5%, but has lowered its economic growth forecast for the country in 2026 by 0.8 percentage points, from 3.8% to 3%
At the same time, EBRD experts forecast Moldova's GDP growth at 3.5% for 2027. These figures are provided in the new February Regional Economic Prospects published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. EBRD experts noted that after a weak first half of 2025, Moldova's economy recovered in the second half of 2025, accelerating to 5.2% year-on-year in the third quarter. Strong performance in agriculture and construction offset weak performance in manufacturing and services, while steady investment and stable consumption supported domestic demand. Policy measures helped mitigate the impact of the energy shock following the expiration of the gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine. However, external pressures intensified due to gas supply disruptions, higher prices for electricity imports from Romania, and widening trade and current account deficits. Inflation in Moldova rose sharply in early 2025 due to shocks related to energy and food prices, but fell to 6.8% (annual inflation) in December 2025 amid tighter monetary policy. As IMF experts note, despite growing external imbalances, EU financial assistance has helped stabilize the outlook and preserve foreign exchange reserves. Moldova's energy security has become a key priority, supported by EU assistance and increased investment in renewable energy sources. Moldova's GDP is projected to grow by 3% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, supported by EU financing and structural reforms, although risks related to energy price volatility and weak external demand remain. It should be noted that in its Regional Economic Prospects of September 2025, the EBRD lowered its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 1.8% to 1.5%, but maintained its economic growth forecast for the country in 2026 at 3.8%. As previously reported, Moldova's GDP in January-September 2025, compared to the same period in 2024, grew in real terms by 2% to 257 billion 347 million lei. According to preliminary estimates by the National Bureau of Statistics, GDP in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 5.2% in real terms compared to the third quarter of 2024, reaching 102 billion 055 million lei. Data on Moldova's economic development last year is not yet available. The National Bureau of Statistics is expected to present them on March 11. The budget for 2026 was drawn up based on a GDP growth forecast of 2.4% to 377 billion lei. Earlier, the IMF raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 1.7% to 2.7% and for 2026 from 2.2% to 2.3%. The World Bank raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 0.9% to 2.9% and for 2026 from 2.4% to 2.7%. At the same time, it forecasts Moldova's economic growth at 3.8% for 2027. The European Commission has raised its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 0.9% to 1.6%, in 2026 from 2.8% to 2.6%, and expects economic growth of 3.7% in 2027. The UN forecasts Moldova's GDP growth at 2.5% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. // 26.02.2026 – InfoMarket.
