Moldova's GDP would grow by 51%, from €16.8 billion to €25.3 billion, if our country's economic sectors reached the EU's minimum productivity level
These are the modeling results presented at a consultative meeting held by the Secretariat of the Economic Council under the Prime Minister to present preliminary research findings and a roadmap for accelerating economic growth by increasing productivity and strengthening competitiveness. The document was developed with the support of Danish Industries through the National Employers' Confederation and other international partners. Ion Lupan, Head of the Secretariat of the Economic Council under the Prime Minister, emphasized the importance of this analytical study for the development of effective and results-oriented economic policy. He noted that the study's goal is to better understand the state of the Moldovan economy in terms of productivity and competitiveness, and, above all, what concrete steps can be taken to accelerate economic growth in the coming years. Based on this analysis, it is planned to develop a roadmap with clear sectoral actions that will narrow the gap with the EU, increase productivity, and create better conditions for business development. "We are presenting the preliminary results of the study, but it is equally important to conduct a comprehensive review. We are open to comments, suggestions, and additions, as only through a lively and honest dialogue will we be able to achieve a final document that reflects economic realities and helps us take concrete steps toward a more competitive economy closer to European standards," he said. During the presentation, the secretariat's experts analyzed the structure of added value in the economy and current productivity levels by sector, comparing Moldova's indicators with the minimum and average indicators in the European Union. The data show that, despite economic diversification, most sectors operate at productivity levels below the EU minimum, limiting economic growth. Herewith, the presentation highlighted clear opportunities for convergence in areas such as manufacturing, trade, energy, agriculture, information technology, and high-value-added services. According to the presented modeling results, if economic sectors were to reach the EU minimum productivity level in 2024, Moldova's nominal GDP could increase from €16.8 billion to €25.3 billion (+51%). The study assessed economic sectors based on eight criteria: share of GDP, productivity gap compared to the EU average, export potential, import substitution, opportunities under the EU Growth Plan, prospects on global markets, transformation experience in EU countries, and Moldova's comparative advantages. Based on these criteria, eight sectors were selected: manufacturing, information technology and communications, agriculture, vocational activities, transport and storage, administrative services/business process outsourcing, construction, and energy. Based on the selected economic sectors, priority actions were identified and a roadmap was developed. The document does not replace existing policy documents, but addresses less widely covered actions that are a priority in the context of the implementation of the Growth Plan (the reform agenda agreed with the EU), are achievable in the medium term, and are capable of having a significant cumulative impact on GDP. Participants were presented with a draft roadmap for 2026–2030, which proposes nine key intervention areas: effective regulation, tax incentives, access to labor, access to finance, investment infrastructure, quality infrastructure, simplification of export procedures, efficient public procurement, and increasing competitiveness in the domestic market. As noted, in addition to the productivity gap, Moldova has a significant employment gap. In the EU, the share of the population aged 15–64 is 71%, while in Moldova it is only 52%. This gap amounts to approximately 290,000 people. The presentation also included a simulation of GDP growth by 2030, depending on a narrowing employment gap with the EU and convergence of productivity indicators with European levels. These scenarios demonstrate that, by combining productivity growth with increased employment, Moldova can achieve significant economic growth in the coming years. Representatives of the business community, government agencies, and international partners participated in the consultation session, providing their comments and recommendations on the preliminary results and proposed intervention areas. The feedback collected will be taken into account in the development of the final version of the study and the roadmap. Subsequently, the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, in cooperation with the Economic Council, will coordinate and monitor the implementation of the measures. //25.02.2026 – InfoMarket.
