From the perspective of the state budget, the increase in banking taxes in 2027 follows a perfectly understandable logic: the banking sector is profitable, and a large portion of its revenue can be temporarily redirected to finance government needs. However, from an economic perspective, this measure should be analyzed not only in terms of the additional tax revenue the government will receive, but also in light of its medium-term impact on banks' ability to finance the economy.
A bank's profit is not merely income for shareholders. A significant portion of these profits remains within the system as capital and contributes to a bank's ability to extend loans and cover potential losses. The stronger the capital base, the greater the volume of assets—and, consequently, lending—a bank can sustain.
Therefore, the key economic question is not only how much additional revenue will flow into the budget, but also how this will affect banks' ability to finance the economy.
In the short term, the impact on customers may be limited. A bank has several ways to offset the increased tax burden: cost optimization, improving operational efficiency, or adjusting margins. In a competitive banking sector, passing on the additional costs entirely to customers is neither automatic nor inevitable.
However, in the longer term, higher taxation may slow the rate of internal capital accumulation. This has a direct impact on the real economy: a smaller pool of available capital may mean more limited opportunities for expanding lending, especially at a time when the economy needs financing for investments.
For this reason, increases in taxation on the banking sector should be analyzed in conjunction with trends in bank lending, investment, and capitalization. If the goal is to stimulate economic growth, tax policy should not simultaneously send signals that discourage capital accumulation in sectors capable of financing that growth.
This issue is all the more relevant at present, as lending in Moldova is experiencing a period of acceleration. Data from the National Bank show a 13.1% year-over-year increase in new loans in the second quarter of 2026. This trend should be viewed in the context of an economy in need of financing for investment and development.
Therefore, the impact of introducing the tax should not be analyzed in "either-or" terms—whether banks will issue loans or stop issuing them. Such an approach oversimplifies the mechanism. The more pertinent question is whether the banking sector will be able to maintain the same pace of lending growth without a corresponding accumulation of capital.
However, there is also a factor that mitigates the risk: the temporary nature of the proposed increase. If this measure is indeed time-limited and is followed by a return to a predictable tax regime, then its impact on banks' investment decisions and long-term strategies can be managed.
Ultimately, the discussion should not be reduced to the question of whether banks should pay higher taxes. It is far more important to determine what level of taxation allows the government to generate additional revenue without significantly reducing the financial system's ability to finance the economy.
In an economy where investment and productivity levels need to be raised, a bank is not merely a contributor to the budget. It is also one of the main channels through which savings are transformed into loans and investments. Therefore, any change to the banking sector's tax regime must be evaluated from both perspectives: in terms of today's budget revenues and in terms of the ability to finance the economy tomorrow.