In the coming years, diesel fuel prices in Moldova will face an additional domestic factor driving price increases that is independent of crude oil and international prices. The draft tax policy calls for a 20% annual increase in the excise tax on diesel fuel from 2027 to 2029—twice as fast as the rate for gasoline. For freight transport, agriculture, construction, and other sectors that use diesel-powered equipment, this means a gradual increase in costs built directly into the tax system.
In 2026, the excise tax rate on diesel fuel is 3,978.95 lei per ton. It is proposed to raise this rate to 4,774.7 lei in 2027, to 5,729.7 lei in 2028, and to 6,875.6 lei in 2029. Thus, over three years, the rate will increase by nearly 73%.
The authorities propose indexing the excise tax on gasoline by 10% annually: from the current 9,456.12 lei per ton to 10,401.7 lei in 2027, 11,441.9 lei in 2028, and 12,586.1 lei in 2029. Over three years, the increase will amount to about one-third.
The Ministry of Finance explains the faster increase in diesel taxation by the need for accelerated alignment with EU minimum rates and environmental goals. The current European Directive 2003/96/EC sets the minimum tax rate for diesel fuel at 330 euros per 1,000 liters and for unleaded gasoline at 359 euros. By comparison, the excise tax on gasoline in Moldova is currently about 2.4 times higher than that on diesel, whereas the EU minimum rates differ by only about 9%. It is precisely this gap that the authorities intend to gradually narrow by raising the excise tax on diesel twice as fast.
Meanwhile, the excise tax on gasoline in Moldova already stands at 9,456.12 lei per ton, or approximately 470 euros per ton at the current exchange rate. By 2029, it is planned to increase it by another third—to 12,586.1 lei per ton. Therefore, the accelerated alignment with European standards in the coming years will primarily affect diesel fuel.
Tax harmonization comes at a very real cost to the domestic economy. Diesel is not just fuel for private cars. Its cost is factored into the expenses of transport companies, farmers, construction firms, and other businesses; therefore, an increase in the excise tax can ripple out beyond gas stations through the cost of transportation and production.
The impact of various factors is currently clearly visible in prices. In early August, fuel prices in Moldova are falling. According to ANRE, during the first week of the month, the maximum price of A-95 gasoline fell by approximately 72 bani per liter, and that of standard diesel by 62 bani. For August 8–10, ANRE set the maximum price for gasoline at 30.05 lei per liter and for diesel fuel at 32.20 lei. The regulator attributes the decline to easing tensions in the Middle East: Brent crude has fallen by more than 15%, and international Platts quotes for petroleum products have dropped by approximately 11–12%.
This is where a fundamental difference comes into play. The international component of the price can fluctuate in either direction. Under the scheme proposed by the Ministry of Finance, the excise tax will only increase over the next three years.
This does not mean that the retail price of diesel will increase by 20% annually. The excise tax is just one of its components, alongside international prices, the exchange rate, other components provided for by the pricing mechanism, and VAT. Therefore, it is impossible to determine right now what the price per liter of diesel will be in 2027 or 2029. But all other things being equal, the tax component will exert increasing pressure on it.
This will be particularly acute for farmers. Farming organizations are already citing the cost of diesel fuel as one of the factors contributing to the deterioration of farms' financial situation. At the same time, the draft tax policy provides for an increase in VAT from 8% to 12% for a number of categories of agricultural products. The rise in the excise tax on diesel fuel is yet another factor driving up costs for farmers.
However, the European regulations that Moldova is striving to adopt do not require a uniform approach to all fuel consumers. The EU directive allows for significantly lower taxation of energy sources used for specific purposes, including in agriculture, horticulture, fisheries, and forestry, and under certain conditions—a reduction in the tax burden down to zero.
It is therefore important for Moldova not only to bring excise taxes in line with European levels but also to establish conditions for the sectors most dependent on diesel. If no special mechanisms are put in place for these sectors, the additional costs will fall on businesses and, where the market allows, will be partially passed on to the cost of transportation, agricultural products, and other goods.
As a result, the excise tax increase creates a constant domestic factor affecting diesel fuel prices that will operate independently of the situation on the oil market. How noticeable this will be at gas stations will be determined by global oil prices and the leu exchange rate. But for carriers, farmers, and other major fuel consumers, the direction of the tax burden has already been set: it will rise over the next three years. //10.08.2026 – InfoMarket.