Diesel fuel in Moldova is facing dual price pressures. European prices are rising, and the domestic market depends on imports of petroleum products. At the same time, under a new tax policy approved by the government on Tuesday, the state plans to increase the excise tax on diesel by 20% annually starting in 2027. Over three years, the rate will rise from 3,978.95 to 6,875.6 lei per metric ton—an increase of 2,896.65 lei, or 72.8%.
Under the new tax policy, gasoline will see an annual excise tax increase of 10%: from 9,456.12 lei per metric ton in 2026 to 10,401.7 lei in 2027, 11,441.9 lei in 2028, and 12,586.1 lei in 2029. For diesel fuel, the rate will increase to 4,774.7 lei in 2027, 5,729.7 lei in 2028, and 6,875.6 lei in 2029. The Ministry of Finance attributes this rapid increase to the need for accelerated alignment with the EU's minimum tax rates, as well as environmental goals.
For Moldova, the increase in the tax on diesel is particularly significant. According to data from the National Energy Regulatory Agency (ANRE), domestic consumption in 2025 amounted to 740.99 thousand metric tons, compared to 693.74 thousand metric tons in 2024—an increase of 47.25 thousand metric tons, or 6.8%. Gasoline consumption totaled 210,20 thousand metric tons, compared to 193,76 thousand metric tons—an increase of 16,44 thousand metric tons, or 8.5%. Liquefied gas consumption decreased from 56.79 thousand to 55.25 thousand metric tons—a decrease of 1.54 thousand metric tons, or 2.7%.
Thus, the country consumes approximately 3.5 times more diesel fuel than gasoline. It accounts for about 74% of the total consumption of these three types of fuel (diesel, gasoline, and liquefied gas), while gasoline accounts for about 21% and natural gas for about 5%.
This breakdown is related to the sectors in which the fuels are used. Gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas are primarily used in passenger vehicles, whereas diesel is widely used in trucks, buses, and minibuses, as well as in tractors, combine harvesters, construction equipment, and other heavy machinery. Therefore, the cost of diesel is factored into the expenses of carriers, agricultural enterprises, and other sectors for which transportation or the operation of machinery is part of the production process.
In 2025, road transport alone carried 17.6 million metric tons of cargo in Moldova, accounting for 87% of the total volume of freight transport. As of the end of 2024, there were 205,987 trucks and 21,370 buses and minibuses registered in the country. Official statistics do not break down this entire fleet by fuel type, so it cannot be considered entirely diesel-powered. However, for heavy-duty and commercial vehicles, diesel remains one of the primary types of fuel. In agriculture, a significant portion of tractors, combine harvesters, and other self-propelled machinery rely on it.
The extent to which the excise tax increase will affect the final price can be roughly estimated based on the current fuel cost structure. As of September 9, 2026, the maximum price for standard diesel is 33.23 lei per liter. Of this amount, 20.12 lei corresponds to the cost of fuel based on international prices, adjusted for the exchange rate; 4.21 lei to the regulated commercial margin and an additional surcharge, 3.36 lei to the excise tax, and 5.54 lei to the VAT. At the same time, VAT is calculated based on the cost of fuel, which already includes excise tax; therefore, an increase in the excise tax automatically increases the amount of VAT in the final price.
If the current ratio between the excise tax rate per metric ton and its value per liter is maintained, in 2027, an increase in the excise tax from 3,978.95 to 4,774.7 lei per metric ton will add approximately 0.67 lei per liter. Taking VAT into account, the final effect will be about 0.81 lei per liter, or approximately 2.4% of the current maximum price of diesel fuel.
In 2028, the excise tax rate will already be 44% higher than the 2026 level, which, given the current price structure, corresponds to an estimated 1.77 lei per liter in additional cost, including VAT, or about 5.3% of the current maximum price of diesel fuel. By 2029, the excise tax rate will be 72.8% higher than the 2026 level, and the estimated impact will be about 2.94 lei per liter, or approximately 8.8% of the current price. This is not a forecast of future fuel prices: market prices, exchange rates, and other components of the ANRE formula may change significantly during this period.
For now, the main driver of price increases is the international market. According to the Ministry of Energy, the European price of diesel fuel currently exceeds 1,400 euros per metric ton. As of September 8, 2026, Moldova's diesel reserves are sufficient for approximately 10 days of consumption, and its gasoline reserves for 18 days. From September 4 to 7, the country imported more than 8,400 metric tons of diesel and 2,900 metric tons of gasoline—volumes roughly equivalent to four days of average diesel consumption and five days of gasoline consumption. In other words, the market is operating "on the fly": current stocks are constantly replenished by new imports, and the stability of the supply depends on the regularity of these shipments.
A 10-day supply does not in itself mean that there is a threat of a shortage in the country: imports continue, and stocks are being replenished. In 2025, Moldova imported 737,560 metric tons of diesel fuel, with domestic consumption at 740,990 metric tons; gasoline—211,920 metric tons, with consumption of 210,200 metric tons—and liquefied petroleum gas—55,230 metric tons, with consumption of 55,250 metric tons. These figures show just how much domestic consumption depends on a constant inflow of fuel from abroad.
For businesses, the key issue is not the excise tax increase itself, but the ability to pass on the additional costs further down the supply chain. The higher the share of fuel in a company's costs, the less room there is to maneuver between maintaining margins and raising prices.
Therefore, the impact of the new tax trajectory will be felt not only at gas stations. It will become part of a broader cost adjustment, particularly in sectors where transportation and equipment account for a significant share of expenses. And since transportation costs are factored into the price of most goods and services to one degree or another, an increase in the excise tax on diesel will create additional inflationary pressure. Businesses may absorb some of the increased costs, but a significant portion of them could be passed on to the end consumer. // 09.09.2026 – InfoMarket.