How much will heating cost this winter? Calculating the bill for a typical apartment and house

Termoelectrica's request to raise the heating rate by 82.6% seems abstract until it's broken down into a typical apartment's bill. The company is asking to increase the rate from the current 2,020 to 3,689 lei per gigacalorie. In Bălți, CET-Nord is proposing an almost twofold increase: from 2,201 to 4,314 lei. These are still only proposals: the final rates must be approved by the National Agency for Energy Regulation (NARE). But even now, it's possible to estimate the order of magnitude of the costs families will face if the companies' proposals are approved at a level close to what they've requested.

For comparison, it makes sense to consider not a hypothetical "average home" but the most common housing types. According to final data from the 2024 Population and Housing Census, 35.3% of occupied dwellings in Moldova have two rooms, and another 33.7% have three. The largest group by area consists of dwellings ranging from 60 to 79 square meters, accounting for 21.7% of the occupied housing stock. At the same time, 62.7% of occupied dwellings are located in single-family homes. Therefore, for our calculations, we used a two-room apartment with an area of 55 square meters, a three-room apartment with an area of 72 square meters, and, for gas heating, houses with areas of 70, 100, and 150 square meters.

The heating season in Chisinau varies in length from year to year. In recent years, it has begun in October–November and ended in late March–early April. For example, the 2023–2024 season began on November 13 and ended on April 1, the 2024–2025 season ended on March 24, and in 2025, residents were allowed to turn on their heat as early as October 3. Therefore, to make a clear comparison of monthly expenses, we use the five main heating months: November through March. This does not mean that heat is supplied for only five months: October and April may add to the costs, but they are usually partial months.

How much will this be per month

* Average amount for the five main heating months: November–March. These are estimated figures based on comparable consumption. Bills are usually lower during warmer months and higher in January and February.

For a hypothetical two-room apartment with an area of 55 square meters, estimated consumption for the season is about 4.9 Gcal. Based on last year's cost levels, this corresponds to approximately 12,700 lei for the five main months, or about 2,500 lei per month on average. If the National Agency for Energy Regulation (NARE) approves the tariff of 3,689 lei per Gcal requested by Termoelectrica, the same amount of heat will cost approximately 19,600 lei—about 3,900 lei on average per month. The increase will amount to about 1,300–1,400 lei per month, 53.5% more than last year's bills.

For a three-room apartment with an area of 72 square meters, the figures are even more striking. With comparable per-unit consumption, seasonal usage amounts to about 6.4 Gcal. The average monthly payment for the five main months could increase from approximately 3,300 to 5,100 lei (a 54.5% increase). Over the season, this amounts to about 9,000 lei in additional expenses.

These calculations are averages and do not represent a forecast of a specific bill. The actual bill depends on the temperature, the home's characteristics, its energy efficiency, the apartment's location, and the building's actual consumption. The January bill may be significantly higher than average, while the November or March bills may be lower.

For homes with independent gas heating, the situation is different: the main increase in the price of gas is already reflected directly in the cost of each cubic meter consumed. Therefore, for a home, the most important factors are its size, insulation, and the efficiency of the boiler. Assuming the same heating conditions, calculations show that a house with an area of about 70 square meters may require an average of about 3,800 lei during a typical winter month, compared to approximately 2,900 lei last winter. For a 100-square-meter home, the cost is about 5,300–5,400 lei, compared to 4,100 lei, and for a 150-square-meter home, it is about 8,100 lei, compared to 6,300 lei.

In absolute terms, this means additional costs of approximately 4,000 lei per season for a 70-square-meter home, about 6,000 for a 100-square-meter home, and around 9,000 lei for a 150-square-meter home. That is, on average, 29% more than in the previous heating season. The actual difference could be either lower or significantly higher: a poorly insulated home can consume much more gas than the estimated amount.

Compensation becomes part of the household rate

It will be interesting to see what the government does regarding state compensation. During the last heating season, financial assistance for gas, district heating, or electricity ranged from 500 to 1,000 lei per month. With a bill of 2,000–3,000 lei, the maximum compensation covered a significant portion of the expenses. With a bill of 4,000–5,000 lei, its share becomes much smaller.

For our example two-room apartment, last year's maximum compensation of 1,000 lei would have reduced the average bill under the new rate from approximately 3,900 to 2,900 lei. For a three-room apartment: from 5,100 to 4,100, and for a 100-square-meter house heated by natural gas—from approximately 5,300–5,400 to 4,300–4,400 lei. In other words, even the maximum assistance available under last year's rules no longer brings a family's expenses back to their previous level.

At the same time, the pool of compensation recipients had already been significantly reduced during the previous heating season .If in the 2024-2025 season about 720 thousand households received support, then in 2025-2026 - about 620 thousand, approximately 100 thousand, or 14%, less. Thus, the new winter is beginning with both significantly higher energy prices and a narrower scope of the compensation program.

The government has already stated that compensation spending will have to increase this coming winter and that the number of recipients may exceed 620,000 households. This turns the rising cost of heating into a problem for both household and government budgets: the larger portion of the increase the government decides not to pass on to consumers, the larger the amount it will have to finance through the compensation program.

For consumers, the key figure this winter is not so much the rate per gigacalorie or cubic meter of gas as the total amount on the bill. If the NARE approves Termoelectrica's tariff at a rate close to the requested one, heating a two-room apartment in Chisinau with comparable consumption will cost an average of about 3,900 lei per month, and a three-room apartment—more than 5,000 lei. For these consumers, the increase is still to come: the final rate will be determined by NARE.

Those who heat their homes with natural gas have already seen the increase: as of September 1, the rate rose by 40.7%, to 20.3 lei per cubic meter, including VAT. Therefore, at current gas prices, heating costs for a home measuring 100–150 square meters may average about 5,000–8,000 lei per month.

For families, this means one simple thing: without more generous compensation, a significant portion of this winter's price hike will show up directly on their bills. Owners of gas-heated homes have already entered the season with higher rates, while for consumers of district heating, the extent of the increase will be determined in the near future.

But it is unlikely that the government will fully absorb this price increase. The budget is already running a high deficit; the government is seeking additional revenue while simultaneously cutting spending. Therefore, it is not only the amount of the compensation itself that matters, but also how many families will actually be able to receive it and what portion of the increased heating bill it will actually cover. // 24.09.2026 – InfoMarket.