Moldova's GDP growth will be zero in 2022 and the average annual inflation rate will reach 28.5% - the IMF forecast.
This is stated in the October report of the International Monetary Fund on the development of the world economy. The IMF economists estimate that Moldova's economy will grow by 2.3% in 2023 relative to the previous year, while in the medium term the annual GDP growth will be 5%. It is worth noting that in the group of developing European countries, which includes Moldova, the GDP growth is also expected to be zero in 2022, while in 2023 the growth is projected at 0.6%. At the same time, if the economy of Romania in 2022 and 2023 will grow by 4.8% and 3.1% respectively, Bulgaria - by 3.9% and 3%, Montenegro - 7.2% and 2.5%, Turkey - 5% and 3%, in Russia in 2022-2023 GDP is projected to decline by 3.4% and 2.3%, respectively, in Belarus - by 7% in the current year, and the next year it is expected to grow by 0.2%, and in Ukraine this year it is expected to decline by 35%, while no projections for the next period are given yet. In general, the IMF has maintained the growth of the global economy in 2022 at 3.2%, but lowered the forecast for 2023 - from 2.9% to 2.7%. The report notes that global economic activity is experiencing a massive and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with annual inflation higher than in several decades. "The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic," the IMF report said. Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation. In Moldova, according to the IMF forecast, in 2022 the average annual inflation rate will increase to 28.5%, in 2023 inflation will decrease to 13.8%, and by 2027 it will fall to the inflation target level (5%). At the same time, the inflation rate at the end of 2022 will be 30%, and at the end of 2023 - 8%. As InfoMarket agency earlier reported, in May 2022, the IMF materials, published after the Extraordinary IMF Executive Board finished its evaluation of the program with Moldova, forecasted the GDP growth at 0.3%, and the annual average inflation rate at 23.5%. // 12.10.2022 - InfoMarket.
