In 2025, Moldova is expected to see a moderate acceleration in economic activity, GDP growth of 2%, and a return of inflation to the target range - the National Bank of Moldova (NBM)
This is stated in the 2024 Financial Stability Report published by the National Bank of Moldova (NBM). The document states that 2024 was marked by a number of systemic problems caused by both continuing international economic uncertainty and the structural vulnerability of the national economy. In this context, economic growth in Moldova amounted to 0.1%, which was significantly influenced by the decline in the agricultural sector. Average annual inflation was 4.7%, initially remaining within the target range but temporarily exceeding it in the second half of the year due to pressure from food prices and energy tariffs. Despite these events, the national financial system demonstrated high resilience. The banking sector continued to function effectively, supporting financial intermediation and the transmission of monetary policy. Fundamental stability indicators remained at a comfortable level: banks maintained high capitalization, with equity capital exceeding minimum requirements; liquidity consistently exceeded regulatory thresholds, including during periods of seasonal pressure; asset quality remained high, with a low share of non-performing loans; the aggregate financial stress index reached a historic low, and systemic banking vulnerability remained low. As noted by the NBM, all this confirms the financial system's resilience to external shocks and its ability to support the real economy. The assessment of systemic risks revealed the continuing vulnerability of the non-banking sector, as well as potential risks related to the real estate sector, climate change, and digitalization. At the same time, exposure to external shocks, including geopolitical, energy, and trade shocks, remained a significant source of uncertainty, although cross-border contagion risks were moderate. At the macroprudential level, the authorities maintained a cautious and balanced approach. The Law on the National Bank of Moldova was amended to establish a clear macroprudential mandate for the NBM and a range of macroprudential instruments at its disposal. Throughout the year, macroprudential instruments were used in proportion to the level of identified risks, and the regulatory framework was further strengthened. The National Committee on Financial Stability actively exercised its interagency coordination powers, helping to prevent the accumulation of systemic imbalances and strengthen the consistency of decisions by authorities responsible for financial stability. It is emphasized that in 2025, a moderate acceleration of economic activity (GDP: +2.0%) and a gradual return of inflation to the NBM's target corridor are expected. The National Bank has stated that it will continue to work to improve the stability of the financial system, monitor systemic risks, and, if necessary, respond to them if they arise. // 05.12.2025 — InfoMarket
