This is stated in the third Inflation Review of the year, published Thursday by the National Bank of Moldova. The report notes that annual inflation in Moldova will rise through the end of 2026, peaking at 9.2% in the fourth quarter, after which it will begin to decline, reaching a low of 3.5% in the first and second quarters of 2028. According to the NBM's new forecast, inflation will remain above the upper limit of the target range for four consecutive quarters and will return within the target range starting in the third quarter of 2027. Average annual inflation is projected at 7.2% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, and compared to the May review, the NBM has raised its forecast by 0.2 percentage points for 2026 and by 0.4 percentage points for 2027. The revision is primarily due to changes in expectations regarding core inflation, food prices, regulated prices, and fuel prices. According to the NBM's assessment, core and food inflation will continue to accelerate through the end of this year, after which they will begin to slow. Regulated prices will rise sharply through the end of 2026 but will decline next year. The rate of increase in fuel prices will slow in the third quarter of 2026, remain relatively stable until early 2027, and decline significantly in the second quarter. Aggregate demand will remain weak until mid-2027, after which it will begin to recover. It will be affected by a decline in remittances in real terms, a slight negative fiscal impulse, and tight monetary conditions, which will persist through the end of 2026 and then become broadly neutral. External inflationary risks stem from the war in the Middle East, high volatility in energy markets, and the vulnerability of the European gas market. Following the signing of a memorandum between the U.S. and Iran and the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude oil prices have fallen from their spring highs: its average price is projected to be $86.6 per barrel in 2026 and around $77 in 2027. At the same time, European Dutch TTF natural gas prices may remain above last year's levels due to low inventories, intensifying competition for LNG, and persistent geopolitical risks. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while the eurozone economy is expected to grow by 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. The main risks to the NBM's forecast remain the escalation of the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, disruptions in the European gas market, rising external inflationary pressures, reduced energy availability, trade fragmentation, extreme temperatures, and volatility in international financial markets. // 13.08.2026 — InfoMarket.