An expert from IDIS Viitorul expressed this view in his latest economic analysis. According to him, the current rate is the highest it has been in the past three years (7.5% in May 2023, and in August 2022 — a record high of 21.5%)—but the increase is occurring against the backdrop of a slowdown in the rate of price growth. The annual inflation rate rose from 5.8% in the first quarter to 6.5% in the second quarter, but a slight slowdown in price growth is already evident in the third quarter. The expert called this situation paradoxical: "This year, we're facing a less traditional situation. Inflation is falling, while the base rate is rising. I admit that we may see rising prices in the future, but at least for now, this increase is hard to understand," said Veaceslav Ioniţă, suggesting that the reasons behind the NBM's decision may become clearer in the next 2–3 months if inflation accelerates again. According to the expert, inflationary pressure in the first half of the year was largely driven by rising prices for energy resources, petroleum products, and natural gas, as well as the consequences of the war in Ukraine and higher prices for fertilizers and construction materials. At the same time, prices for agri-food products are helping to slow inflation during the summer. This year, agricultural raw materials have become cheaper compared to last year, which creates the conditions for prices of certain food products to remain stable or even decline. The expert believes that one of the effects the NBM aims to achieve by raising the base rate is to make bank deposits more attractive. According to the economist, this mechanism is working to some extent: the average interest rate on household deposits rose to nearly 5.7%, up from 5.2% a few months earlier. However, the average interest rate on loans to individuals, on the contrary, fell from 10% in the third quarter of 2025 to 9.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Despite the base rate rising from 5% in April to 7.5% in July, the monthly volume of mortgage lending reached a historic high of about 1.1 billion lei, and the average mortgage rate fell from 8.2% to 8%. The volume of consumer loans in June also reached a record 1.8 billion lei, compared to 1.6 billion lei a year earlier, with the number of loans totaling approximately 295,000 for the year. According to Veaceslav Ioniţă, trends in mortgage lending depend more on conditions in the real estate and construction markets, and the current increase in the base rate is insufficient to significantly curb lending. At the same time, as the expert notes, the NBM's decision had the most noticeable impact on government securities: while the government raised funds at approximately 9.5% at the beginning of the year, the cost of borrowing rose to 10% in July. Consequently, the government is forced to borrow at higher rates, including to repay previously secured, lower-cost loans. "Under current conditions, the NBM's monetary policy has a limited impact on the public's decision to take out loans, especially mortgages and consumer loans. At the same time, the effect of raising the base rate is felt more quickly in deposit rates and, in particular, in the cost of government borrowing," the expert concluded.// 14.08.2026 — InfoMarket.