The EBRD has lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.5% to 2%, and expects economic growth of 3.8% in 2026
These data are provided in the bank's new February review of the regional economy (Regional Economic Prospects). At the same time, EBRD experts have lowered their forecast for Moldova's gross domestic product growth by the end of 2024 by 2.7 percentage points - from 3.2% to 0.5% (there are no final data on Moldova's GDP for 2024 yet). They have reduced the forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 by 1.5 percentage points - from 3.5% to 2%. Herewith, EBRD experts forecast Moldova's GDP growth of 3.8% in 2026. The EBRD reports that economic growth in Moldova amounted to 0.6% year-on-year in January-September 2024. This weak performance was due to a 10% decline in the fragile agricultural sector and an 11% decline in real goods exports, mainly due to lower demand in the EU automotive industry. After relatively strong performance at the start of the year, industrial production contracted in Q4 2024, indicating further pressure on economic activity. In early 2025, a renewed energy crisis further worsened economic activity. Gazprom's gas supplies to Transnistria ceased following the expiration of the gas transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia on 31 December 2024. As a result, the gas-fired Moldovan State District Power Plant sharply reduced production, relying on limited coal reserves, and stopped supplying electricity to the right bank of the Dniester. Meanwhile, Moldova imported electricity from Romania at inflated prices. In early 2025, the National Agency for Energy Regulation approved new tariffs for electricity supplied to end consumers, which reflect the higher prices for imported electricity. This led to an acceleration of inflation due to rising food prices and a planned gradual adjustment of excise rates in early 2025. The National Bank immediately responded by raising the key interest rate by 2 percentage points to 5.6% in January 2025, the first rate increase in the last 2 years. As EBRD experts note, although Moldova’s short-term economic growth prospects remain modest, the recently adopted European Commission Growth Plan for Moldova worth €1.9 billion for 2025-2027 (of which €285 million are grants) can provide significant assistance. In 2025, moderate GDP growth of 2% is expected, increasing to 3.8% in 2026. It should be noted that Moldova's GDP in January-September 2024 amounted to 233 billion 129 million lei, an increase of 0.6% compared to the same period in 2023. In the Regional Economic Prospects review, published in September 2024, EBRD experts reduced the forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2024 from 3.5% to 3.2%, and in 2025 - from 3.7% to 3.5%. // 27.02.2025 — InfoMarket.
