Expert-Grup: In 2023, Moldova's GDP will grow by 4.7%, in 2024 - by 5.4%, and in the next 3 years - by 4-5% annually.
These baseline economic growth forecasts are presented in the Mega independent analytical center's Q1 2023 study. Experts believe that the economic outlook for the coming years is associated with both great opportunities and risks. Thus, the stabilization of the security situation in the region, the improvement of energy and mobile communications with Romania, the start of negotiations on accession to the EU can create a huge synergistic effect for attracting investment and modernizing the country. At the same time, risks remain an important variable, which include the risk of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, volatility in the energy market, a global recession, hybrid threats from Russia, and the behavior of political decision makers, along with currently limited administrative capacity. Adrian Lupusor, Executive Director of Expert-Grup, noted that in 2022 the Moldovan economy was seriously affected by a series of unprecedented crises, such as Russia's aggression in Ukraine, the energy crisis, persistent inflation and drought, which put Moldovan enterprises under cost and competitiveness pressure. In 2022, GDP contracted by 5.9%, while agriculture, construction, real estate, and industry were the most affected sectors of the economy. Herewith, according to the expert, thanks to the measures taken by the government and external assistance, the shocks were softened, and the economy entered 2023 stronger and with good prospects for a quick recovery. “The national currency was preserved, the banking system turned out to be stable and well capitalized, and the public finance system remained under control. This was made possible mainly by the financial, technical and political assistance of development partners. For 2023, we forecast economic growth in the range of 4-5%. It will take place against the background of the recovery of agriculture due to relatively favorable climatic conditions, lower inflation and, accordingly, the easing of monetary policy and the resumption of lending,” said Adrian Lupusor. According to experts, agricultural production will grow by 30.6% in 2023, by 1.6% in 2024, and then the annual growth will exceed 3.5%. Industrial production will increase by 9.4% this year, after which it will slow down to 1.6% in 2024, and in 2025-2027 growth will be small. According to forecasts, 2023-2024 will become a period of “inflation returning to normal”: in 2023, the average inflation rate will be 13.5%, and in subsequent years - 5-5.5%. Experts predict easing of monetary policy measures, relative stability of consumption growth by households (2.3-2.9% annually). The disposable income of the population will grow, while the average unemployment rate will decrease: in 2023 it will be 5.1%, in 2024 - 2.6%, and in the next 3 years - 3.8% per year. Foreign trade indicators will slow down: in 2023, exports are projected to decline by 0.2%, while imports will grow by 0.9%. In subsequent years, the growth rate of imports (+11.7% - in 2024, +7.2% - in 2025) will be higher than the growth rates of exports (+7% and, respectively, 6.9%), and 2026 -2027 they will equalize (up to 6.3%-6.5% annually). The exchange rate of the Moldovan lei against the dollar will be 19.3 lei in 2023, 19.1 lei - in 2024, and in the next 3 years - 19 lei.// 28.04.2023 — InfoMarket
