The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization has lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 2% to 1.3% and presented a forecast for 2028 based on three scenarios
In particular, the Ministry updated its economic development forecast for Moldova for 2025 and presented forecasts for 2026-2028, which reflect the latest macroeconomic trends, as well as the potential impact of the EU-approved Growth Plan for Moldova. Three alternative development scenarios are envisaged: baseline, moderate, and optimistic. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization reported that, according to the updated forecast, economic growth in Moldova in 2025 is estimated at 1.3% instead of the previously forecast 2%. This adjustment is mainly due to the trade deficit caused by a decline in exports of goods and higher-than-expected imports, especially of energy resources. However, a gradual recovery is expected by the end of this year, facilitated by a relatively higher harvest of major crops (wheat, barley, corn). This will help mitigate the decline in exports by increasing agricultural and food supplies and slowing the growth of imports. The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization emphasized that data for the first half of 2025 also show some positive trends. Private consumption increased by 6.3% in the first quarter (higher than the initial forecast) thanks to growth in household income and expanded access to credit. At the same time, economic agents' own investments increased by 26.8% in the first quarter of the year and by 25% in the second quarter, reflecting the business community's confidence in the support policies promoted by the government, such as the introduction of a zero rate on reinvested profits and favorable lending conditions in the first half of the year. In the medium term, the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization, together with macroeconomic experts, proposes three scenarios for economic development. The baseline scenario envisages slow growth at the level of current economic potential, with annual rates ranging from 1.5% in 2026 to 1.8% in 2027 and 2% in 2028, amid gradual reforms and a stable international environment. This projected GDP growth reflects weak domestic demand and an unstable investment environment. Inflation is expected to remain relatively stable, falling from 7.3% in 2025 to 5% in 2028, in line with prudent monetary policy. The moderate scenario assumes that the partial implementation of reforms and investment projects envisaged in the Growth Plan for Moldova could lead to a gradual acceleration of the economy, with a projected growth rate of 2.7% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027, and 3.6% in 2028. The optimistic scenario, which assumes full implementation of the Growth Plan for Moldova, envisages GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026, 3.8% in 2027, and 4.3% in 2028. At the same time, the Ministry emphasizes that these positive prospects are still subject to risks that could negatively affect the economic growth trajectory. These include: the escalation of the war in Ukraine, growing geopolitical tensions in the world, a possible recession in the economies of Moldova's main trading partners, new energy shocks, internal political instability, and adverse weather conditions. The dynamics of these factors will play a significant role in shaping economic dynamics in the coming period. // 03.09.2025 – InfoMarket.
