The EBRD has cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Moldova from 2% to 1.8%, but kept its 2026 economic growth forecast at 3.8%.
This data is provided in the new Regional Economic Prospects published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in May. The EBRD experts noted that Moldova's economic growth slowed to just 0.1% in 2024, driven by an 18.9% decline in agriculture and a 12.6% decline in real exports due to lower demand in the EU and Ukraine. Despite a promising start to the year, the Moldovan economy fell into recession in the second half of 2024, exacerbated by weak demand for industrial exports and poor agricultural conditions. Production and exports remained sluggish in early 2025, further hampered by disruptions in gas supplies from Russia’s Gazprom to the Transnistrian region and the interruption of electricity supplies from the Moldovan State District Power Plant located there, requiring expensive electricity imports from Romania. As a result, retail prices for electricity and heating increased by 50% and 25% in January 2025, respectively. This came amid already accelerating inflation in late 2024 due to rising food prices and a planned gradual adjustment in excise prices in early 2025, prompting the National Bank to raise the key rate twice in early 2025, the first increases in more than 2 years. Annual inflation reached 9.1% in January 2025, but eased slightly to 8.8% by March. The EBRD experts note that Moldova’s foreign exchange market remains stable thanks to stable official external financing. In February 2025, the European Commission provided the country with €250 million to offset excess energy costs for households and social institutions until the end of 2025, as well as assistance to vulnerable households and support for agricultural and manufacturing businesses. Together with the European Commission’s Growth Plan for Moldova in the amount of €1.9 billion for 2025-2027, including €385 million in grants, these measures are aimed at strengthening the economy. EBRD experts forecast that real GDP growth in Moldova will reach 1.8% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. It should be noted that in the Regional Economic Prospects published in February, EBRD experts lowered their forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.5% to 2%, noting that they expect economic growth of 3.8% in 2026. Earlier, the World Bank lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.9% to 0.9%, and in 2026 - from 4.5% to 2.4%. The IMF lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.7% to 0.6%. At the same time, the fund's experts predict economic growth in Moldova by 2.5% in 2026, and by 5% by the end of the next 5-year period (2030). The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization predicts 2% growth in the Moldovan economy in 2025, and in 2026, it expects economic growth of 2.4%.// 13.05.2025 – InfoMarket.
