Currently, there are no risks of a sharp depreciation of the Moldovan leu - Veaceslav Ionita
This opinion was expressed by an expert on economic policy at the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) Viitorul, noting that all the instruments at the disposal of the National Bank of Moldova will not allow a negative development of events on the currency market. As Veaceslav Ionita emphasized, over the past 10 years, the Moldovan leu, with rare exceptions, has been at the same level. However, at present, there is a tendency for it to strengthen. The expert analyzed the evolution of the leu in the first week of the year, noting that it was 1.2% weaker against the euro and the dollar than in the first week of 2024. Last year, in the first week of the year, it strengthened by 6.1% compared to the first week of 2023. "From 2016 to 2025, the Moldovan leu depreciated for 3 years. In the remaining years, it rose in price. This year, the leu has strengthened against the euro and the dollar by 9.4% compared to 2016. If in 2016, in the first week of the year, $1 cost 19.86 lei, and 1 euro - 21.44 lei, then in the first week of 2025, $1 cost 18.51 lei, and 1 euro - 19.23 lei. In the case of the euro, there has never been such an exchange rate since 2016. In the case of the dollar, it is a little stronger,” the expert said. Veaceslav Ioniță claims that in the first week of 2025, compared to the first week of 2024, the Moldovan leu appreciated against the Turkish lira, the Ukrainian hryvnia, the Belarusian ruble, the Czech crown, the Romanian leu and the euro, but depreciated against the Polish zloty, the Chinese yuan and the US dollar. However, against all currencies combined, it appreciated by 0.4% in the first week of 2025, compared to the first week of 2024. “The Moldovan leu, regardless of what happens on the foreign exchange market during the year, starts the year at the same level, even if it is stronger,” says Veaceslav Ioniță. According to the economist, in 2024, the volume of foreign currency bought and sold by Moldovans amounted to $7.2 billion, which is $500 million more than in 2023. Citizens sold $5.1 billion and bought $2.1 billion. Thus, in 2024, $3 billion entered the foreign currency market. Speaking about the currency transactions of citizens in 2024, the economist noted that out of $7.2 billion, $5.1 billion (70.4% of the total) were carried out in euros; $1.5 billion (20.4%) - in dollars; $0.6 billion (8.8%) - in other currencies, and $0.03 billion (0.4%) - in Russian rubles. According to the economic analyst, in 2024, transfers to individuals amounted to $1.6 billion, while currency sales by individuals amounted to $3 billion. Thus, an unofficial currency surplus of $1.4 billion was formed on the market. Veaceslav Ionita believes that part of this money came from Ukrainian citizens who fled to Moldova. According to the expert, in almost all years, the demand and supply of foreign currency were equal. However, in 2024, the demand for foreign currency was higher than the supply by $540 million, since import prices for energy suddenly increased in December 2024, and in December, the population sells little foreign currency. "Even if in recent years there has been a shortage of foreign currency, because there have been several energy crises, the NBM's foreign currency reserves allow for interventions in the market," Veaceslav Ionita noted. According to him, despite the fact that for several months there was a micro shock on the currency market, the NBM calmly carried out interventions to sell currency, and the sales had virtually no effect on its currency reserves. "They are replenished either through sales made by citizens or through currency that enters the country through various programs and support," added Veaceslav Ionita.// 14.02.2025 – InfoMarket.
