The IMF forecasts Moldova's GDP to grow by 1.5% in 2023 and by 4.3% in 2024.
This is stated in the materials of the International Monetary Fund, released after the completion of the IMF Executive Board’s second assessment of the implementation of the financing program for Moldova. As noted, the side effects of the war in Ukraine and the gloomy global outlook will have long-term consequences for Moldova's economy. The projected real GDP growth of 1.5% for 2023 is a weaker short-term recovery than projected at the time of the first review. The lower GDP growth forecast reflects the continued impact of multiple crises on domestic demand, as well as a weaker growth profile for Moldova's trading partners. In the medium term, a steady growth trajectory is projected, due to the recovery of domestic consumption and investments as the effects of the war subside and the implementation of structural reforms under the program as well as the advancement of Moldova's EU integration process continue. As noted by IMF experts, the high base effect of 2022, combined with weaker domestic consumption and an assumed gradual normalization of global energy and food prices, is expected to help ease inflationary pressures in 2023. Inflation is projected to be within the National Bank's target range in early 2024. The budget deficit is expected to be 6% of GDP in 2023. Public debt will remain sustainable and will peak at 40.3% of GDP by 2024, with the overall risk of debt crisis assessed as moderate. External debt remains at low risk of debt crisis. // 16.01.2023 - InfoMarket.
