Moldova's GDP will grow by almost 52% in 2025 versus 2021 and will reach 367.5 billion lei.
These data are contained in the Budget forecast for the medium term (2023-2025), approved by the government at a meeting on Wednesday. The document takes into account the macroeconomic scenario drafted by the Ministry of Economy in August 2022, which was revised due to an unprecedented situation where the energy crisis coincided with the refugee crisis and inflationary pressures continued to grow, exacerbating already existing vulnerabilities. The baseline macroeconomic scenario assumes that Moldova's GDP growth in 2022 will be zero. This is due to rising external prices, the war in a neighboring country, difficulties with international supply chains, and the hydrological drought. But over the forecast horizon, the national economy is expected to grow: GDP is expected to grow 1.5% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024, and 4.2% in 2025. The average annual inflation rate this year is projected at 29.5%, and at the end of the year - 33.8%, and in the next 3 years inflation will grow more restrained: in 2023 average annual inflation growth is projected at 15.7% (at the end of the year - 6.9%), in 2024 - 5.9% (5%), and in 2025 both indicators will be 5%. However, risks and uncertainties with the situation in the region remain, and the return of some sanitary restrictions affecting economic activity cannot be ruled out, which may affect the baseline forecast. By the end of 2022, industrial production will grow by 1.5%, and in the next 3 years it will grow annually by 4% or more. The volume of agricultural production in 2022 will decrease by 18%, in 2023 it is projected to grow by 7.5%, and in the next 2 years the growth will be more moderate - 2% or more. In 2022, exports will increase by 40.4% and imports by 25.1%, but in the next 3 years the growth rate will be more moderate: exports will increase in 2023-2025 by 1.4%, 9.5% and 7.1%, and imports by 4.7%, 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively. Investment in long-term tangible assets will grow by 3.5% in 2022 over the previous year, and the next 3 years will grow by 1%, 5.1%, and 4.4%. The national currency (MDL) will depreciate against the USD as follows: in 2022 the average annual exchange rate of the MDL against the USD will be 19.14 lei, and in the next 3 years - 20.01 lei, 20.8 lei and 21.32 lei per USD (at the end of 2022 - 19.91 lei, at the end of 2023 - 20.53 lei, at the end of 2024 - 21.17 lei, at the end of 2025 - 21.56 lei). The average salary at the end of 2022 will be 10,170 lei - 13.5% more than in the previous year, although in real terms it will decrease by 12.8%. A similar trend will continue in 2023, when the average salary will be 11,500 lei. In 2024-2025 the average wage in the country will reach 12,700 and, respectively, 13,850 lei (+10.4% and, respectively, +9.1% compared to the previous year), and its growth in real terms will be 4.3% and 3.8%. The labor remuneration fund will increase from 77.2 billion lei in the current year to 104.9 billion lei in 2025. In contrast to previous years, the budget forecast for the medium term does not contain information about new fiscal measures. // 06.10.2022 – InfoMarket
