Budget forecast for the medium term: in 2022, zero GDP growth is expected in Moldova, and in the next 3 years the economy will grow at a slow pace.
The Ministry of Finance is holding public consultations on the draft budget forecast for the medium term, which is a guideline for planning the country's annual budget. According to the basic scenario for the development of the economy, which was updated in August, in 2022 in Moldova, instead of a decline of 4.5%, zero GDP growth is expected. This forecast takes into account more pronounced growth in imports of goods and services, the war in Ukraine, the disruption of international supply chains for goods, hydrological drought, slowdown in domestic and external demand. Over the forecast horizon, the national economy is expected to grow: GDP is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2023, by 3.6% in 2024, and by 4.2% in 2025. At the end of 2023, industrial production will grow by 1.5%, and in the next three years it will grow by at least 4% annually. The volume of agricultural production in 2022 will decrease by 18%, in 2023 it is projected to grow by 7.5%, and in the next two years the growth will be more moderate - 2-2.3%. In 2022, exports will increase by 40.4% and imports by 25.1%, but over the next three years, growth rates will be more moderate: exports will grow by 1.4%, 9.5% and 7.1% - in 2023-2025, and imports, respectively, by 4.7%, 3.2% and 2.8%. Investment in long-term tangible assets will grow by 3.5% in 2022 compared to the previous year, with growth of 1%, 5.1% and 4.4% over the next three years. The average annual inflation rate is projected at 29.5% this year and 33.8% at the end of the year, and inflation will grow more moderately in the next three years: in 2023, the average annual inflation growth is projected at 15.7% (at the end of the year - 6.9%), in 2024 - 5.9% (5%), and in 2025 both figures will be 5%. The national currency will continue to depreciate against the US dollar: in 2023, the average annual exchange rate of the leu against the dollar will be 19.14 lei, and in the next three years it will be: 20.01 lei, 20.8 lei and 21.32 lei per dollar (at the end of 2022 - 19.91 lei, at the end of 2023 - 20.53 lei, at the end of 2024 - 21.17 lei, at the end of 2025 - 21.56 lei per dollar. Average salary at the end of 2022 will amount to 10,170 lei, which is 13.5% more than in the previous year, although in real terms it will decrease by 12.8%. A similar trend will continue in 2023, when the average salary will be 11,500 lei. In 2024 and 2025, the average salary in the country will reach 12,700 and, respectively, 13,850 lei (+10.4% and, respectively, +9.1% compared to the previous year), and its growth in real terms will be positive. Ministry of Finance, the war in Ukraine, which provoked a crisis of regional security, energy, migration and food crises, as well as unfavorable climate Economic changes and drought could further affect the Moldovan economy. The underlying macroeconomic outlook could be adversely affected by the continuation of the current economic crisis, a more pronounced increase in inflation in the medium term, an increase in international prices for agri-food products and uncertainty about the results of the Moldovan agricultural sector in 2022-2023 both in terms of productivity and prices.// 03.10.2022 — InfoMarket.
