Moldova’s economic growth will not exceed 3% in 2022 - Expert-Grup.
Such a macroeconomic forecast by the Expert-Grup independent analytical center was presented at the MEGA conference “The economy in 2022: from recovery to stagflation?” Expert, director of the program "Macroeconomics, Forecasts and Economic Modeling" Alexander Fala noted that in 2021, Moldova's GDP growth, according to preliminary estimates, will be 9.5-10%, after which economic growth will slow down significantly. According to the baseline forecasts, domestic consumption growth will slow down from 8.8% in 2021 to 4.3% in 2022 and to 3.3% in 2023. This year, business will suffer from rising energy prices, but the situation will not be dramatic. As Fala noted, due to high liquidity, banks will be interested in providing loans and, despite some tightening of monetary policy, lending is expected to grow. This will support the positive dynamics of private investment. Thus, according to Expert-Grup forecasts, in 2022 the growth of investments in long-term tangible assets will be 10% (last year - 22.2%), while in the private sector growth will decrease from 26.9% to 12%, and in public sector - will be even more modest - 1.6% against 5.5% last year. Alexander Fala noted a significant decrease in the growth rate of foreign economic activity. Thus, in 2022, it is expected that exports will grow by 8.3% (in 2021 - 12.7%), and imports - by 4% (in 2021 - 22.5%). The expert believes that growth in the main sectors of the economy will not exceed 5% (the largest growth is expected in the construction industry, the smallest in the agricultural sector). This year, the labor force deficit will remain - the number of employed people will increase by no more than 1% in 2022-2023. During this period, an increase in the average salary in the country by 7-8% is also expected, and the growth of pensions is projected at 4.3% this year and 7.7% next year. At the same time, experts forecast a high level of average annual inflation (+14% in 2022), and they say that the pronounced price increase is one of this year’s challenges. Another risk is associated with the budget deficit, which will be about 6% of the country's GDP (in 2021 - 3% of GDP). // 31.01.2022 – InfoMarket
