The Ministry of Economy predicts economic growth by 6% in 2021, and in the next 3 years the annual growth will exceed 4%.
Such data are contained in the preliminary forecast of macroeconomic indicators for 2022-2024, which was published by the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure. When compiling the forecast, the dynamics of the development of the national economy in the previous year under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the main aspects of the forecast of the world economy, especially the countries that are the main trading partners of Moldova, were taken into account. The forecast of the inflation rate and the leu exchange rate, agreed with the National Bank, was also taken into account. The Ministry of Economy notes that after a year of serious challenges, when the Moldovan economy was seriously affected by extreme climatic conditions and a pandemic crisis, having decreased by 7%, a gradual economic recovery is expected in 2021. According to forecasts, real GDP growth will be about 6% in 2021, and in the following years (2022-2024), economic growth will remain on an upward trajectory of about 4%, being close to potential GDP. In nominal terms, the volume of GDP in 2021 will amount to 227.7 billion lei, in 2022 - 248.8 billion lei, by 2024 - 292.8 billion lei. In 2021, the positive dynamics in the industrial sector is expected to recover: after last year's decline by 5.5%, in 2021 an increase of 2.4% is projected, in 2022 - by 4.2%, and in the following 2 years - by 3.5-3.7%. In monetary terms, the volume of industrial production will grow from 60.6 billion lei in 2021 to 71.9 billion lei in 2024. The growth of agricultural production is expected to resume: this year it is expected to grow by 29% compared to last year (up to 40 billion lei) , and in the next years the growth will be less pronounced: by 5.5%, 2.5% and 3%, respectively, in 2022-2024. According to the Ministry of Economy, investments in long-term assets this year will be 2% higher than last year and amount to 31.9 billion lei, and in 2022 investments will grow by 4.3%, in 2023 - by 3.7% and in 2024 - by 4.4%. Foreign economic activity is also expected to intensify: export growth in the current year is expected to be 14.7%, and imports - by 13.7% compared to 2020. In 2022-2024 annual export growth will amount to 9.5%, 8.5% and 6.9% (to $ 3.62 billion by the end of 2024), and annual import growth is projected at 7.1%, 6.8% and 6.1% (up to $ 7.48 billion at the end of 2024). // 31.03.2021 — InfoMarket
