The EBRD has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 1.8% to 1.5%, but has maintained its economic growth forecast for the country in 2026 at 3.8%
These figures are given in the new September Regional Economic Prospects report published by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. EBRD experts noted that Moldova's economy contracted by 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, mainly due to a sharp decline in agricultural and industrial production and a reduction in exports of goods. Russia's suspension of gas supplies to Moldova's Transnistria region in January 2025 triggered an electricity shortage, forcing Moldova to import more expensive energy from Romania. As a result, electricity import costs rose sharply, the trade deficit increased by 50%, and the current account deficit more than doubled in the first quarter of 2025. Continued EU financial assistance supported Moldova's financing needs, and foreign exchange reserves remained stable at $5 billion as of July 2025, covering nearly six months of imports. Rising energy prices added to inflationary pressures: electricity tariffs jumped by almost 50%, and district heating costs increased by 25% in January 2025 compared to the previous month. As a result, annual inflation jumped to 9.1% in January 2025 and then fell to 7.3% in August 2025. The National Bank of Moldova responded to rising inflationary pressures by raising its policy rate twice, bringing it to 6.5% by February 2025. It was subsequently lowered to 6.25% in August as inflationary pressures eased somewhat. In September, the NBM reduced it to 6%. The national currency remained stable thanks to external financing. It should be noted that in its previous May Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD lowered its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 2% to 1.8%, but maintained its economic growth forecast for the country in 2026 at 3.8%. As previously reported by InfoMarket, the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization lowered its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 2% to 1.3%. Moldova's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 72.98 billion lei and decreased in real terms by 1.2% compared to the same period in 2024. Data on GDP dynamics in the first half of 2025 have not yet been published by the National Bureau of Statistics. Earlier it was reported that the IMF had lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.7% to 0.6%. At the same time, the Fund's experts forecast Moldova's economic growth at 2.5% for 2026 and 5% for the end of the next five-year period (2030). The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Moldova in 2025 from 3.9% to 0.9% and in 2026 from 4.5% to 2.4%. The European Commission has lowered its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2025 from 3.8% to 0.9% and in 2026 from 4.2% to 2.8%. // 25.09.2025 – InfoMarket.
