Veaceslav Ionita, an economic policy expert at IDIS "Viitorul," presented these estimates on November 6 as part of his weekly analytical program. According to his data, in the third quarter of 2026, the volume of online purchases made abroad in Moldova totaled 4.6 billion lei, an increase of 11% compared to the same period last year (4.1 billion lei). The average annual growth rate for such purchases is estimated at 33% for 2024–2026, compared to 29% for 2015–2019 and 15% for 2020–2023. In 2015, the volume of cross-border online purchases totaled just 1.55 billion lei. By 2027, the expert forecasts that the volume of online purchases of goods and services will grow to 20.1 billion lei, of which approximately 2.2 billion lei will come from purchases that are already subject to taxes. The number of cross-border online transactions, according to his estimates, will grow from nearly 40.1 million in 2025 to 53 million in 2027. By comparison, 10 years ago, the number of online purchases from foreign online stores stood at 4.7 million. At the same time, the average value of a single purchase fell from 516 lei in 2017 to 361 lei in 2021 and is expected to reach about 379 lei in 2027. Veaceslav Ionita noted a trend toward an increase in lower-value purchases. Thus, the number of parcels and small packages arriving in Moldova rose to approximately 11.9 million in 2025 and could reach 15.9 million in 2027, compared to about 3.7 million in 2020. The average value of a single imported package increased from approximately 861 lei in 2020 to 1,096 lei in 2025, and is projected to reach 1,326 lei in 2027. At the same time, the expert analyzed trends in the domestic e-commerce market. Its share of the total volume of online purchases by Moldovan consumers grew from 6% in 2015 to 25% in 2023; however, according to his estimates, it will not even reach 20% in 2025–2027. Veaceslav Ionita noted that about 80% of online purchases are paid for in cash or by credit card to the courier and are not reflected in official e-commerce statistics. The expert emphasized that the postal sector also supports the growth of cross-border trade: operators' revenues increased from 638.2 million lei in 2024 to 940.6 million lei in 2025, and are projected to reach approximately 1.21 billion lei in 2026. Herewith, two-thirds of the revenue growth for postal operators in 2025 was generated by just one operator that entered the market in 2019. Meanwhile, online imports are growing faster than exports: in 2027, foreign online purchases are projected to reach 20.1 billion lei, while online exports are projected to be approximately 4 billion lei. Consequently, the online trade deficit could reach 16.1 billion lei in 2027, compared to 750 million lei in 2015. Over this period, online imports grew approximately 13-fold, while exports grew approximately 5-fold. // 06.11.2026 - InfoMarket.