Industry and foreign trade are expected to grow more modestly in 2023, but higher growth is expected in agriculture.
The bill amending the state budget for 2023 was drafted taking into account the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization (MDED) updated in July. According to the latest forecasts of MDED, Moldova's GDP will amount to 309.5 billion lei in 2023 and will grow by about 2.5 per cent against the previous year. It should be reminded that such dynamics is forecasted against the background of GDP decline in 2022 by 5.9% and growth in 2021 by 13.9%. Initially, when developing the budget for 2023, 2% economic growth was envisioned. The average annual inflation growth rate will be 13.4% (in March it was forecasted to grow by 13.5%, and at the time of budget layout - 15.7%). At the end of the year, the inflation rate is expected to be 5.2% instead of the 6% forecasted in March. The foreign trade forecast has changed more significantly: in 2023, exports are expected to grow by 0.6% to $4.36 billion (previously it was forecasted a growth of grow 3.4% and 1.4% in the budget planning), while imports are expected to grow by 2.5% to $9.45 billion (the previous forecast envisioned a 6.5% growth, while initially in the current year's budget import growth was planned at 28.9%). The deficit of the foreign trade balance will amount to $5.09 billion. In 2023, a more modest growth of industrial production is also expected - instead of 4.5%, the growth will amount to only 1% - to 93.5 billion lei, although initially the draft budget envisioned a 1.3% decline in the industrial sector. At the same time, the forecast of growth in the agricultural sector has been improved. Instead of 15% growth, MDED forecasts 20% growth at the end of the year - up to 49.6 billion lei, although initially, when planning the state budget for this year, a 27% year-on-year decline in agriculture was forecasted. The March forecast was maintained for the volume of investments in long-term tangible assets: after a significant decline in 2022 (-11.6%), this year's growth will amount to 1.5% - up to 34.2 billion lei. At the same time, MDED revised the forecast for the average monthly nominal salary in the country - instead of 11,850 lei, it will amount to 12,450 lei and will grow by 19.7% year-on-year (instead of the previously forecasted 13.9% growth). The labor remuneration fund will amount to 93.5 billion lei (earlier its volume was forecasted at 88.7 billion lei, and even less - 77.3 billion lei - during the elaboration of the budget). The ministry also forecasts a less pronounced depreciation of the national currency against the US dollar than in its previous forecasts. The average annual exchange rate of the leu (MDL) against the US dollar (USD) will amount to 18.5 lei (previously forecasted at 18.99 lei), and at the end of 2023 - 18.82 lei (instead of 19.08 lei per dollar in the previous forecast). //05.10.2023 - InfoMarket.
