In 2022 Moldova's GDP growth will be 0.3% and in the future the economy will grow by 3-4.5% annually - the forecast of the Ministry of Economy.
The preliminary forecast for the macro-economic indicators for 2022-2025 was made by the Ministry of Economy after consultations with the experts of the International Monetary Fund, who were on a mission in Moldova from March 9-16. In 2022, the GDP of Moldova is expected to amount to 286.5 billion lei and will increase by about 0.3% compared to the previous year. In 2023, the growth of the Moldovan economy is projected at 3%, in 2024 - 4.2%, in 2025 - 4.4% compared with the previous year. The Ministry of Economy notes that the macroeconomic forecast is made taking into account price increases on world markets, the war in Ukraine, difficulties in international supply chains, which will limit foreign and domestic demand. Nevertheless, the dynamics of foreign trade operations is expected to be positive: in 2022, exports will increase by 4.5% to $3.2 billion, and imports will increase by 6.9% to $7.6 billion. In 2023, Moldovan exports will grow by 5.3% (imports will increase by 4.3%), in 2024 - by 6.4% (+5% for imports), in 2025 - by 7.3% (imports will grow by 5.4%). The foreign trade deficit is expected to grow from $4.38 billion in 2022 to $4.9 billion. Investment in long-term tangible assets is also expected to increase: in 2022 - by 5% compared to the previous year, in 2023 - by 6.8%, and in the next two years - by 5.1% and 4.4% respectively. However, the Ministry of Economy stresses that the investment activity will be provided by the state infrastructure projects, financed, in particular, by the resources of external development partners. The volume of industrial production in 2022 is projected at 83.9 billion lei, which is 3.5% more than in the previous year. In the next three years, the annual growth of the industrial sector will not exceed 4-5%. The volume of production in the agricultural sector is expected to decrease by 2.5% to 56.5 billion lei in 2022, and in the following 3 years the agricultural production will grow by 1.5-2% annually. The Ministry of Economy said that the macroeconomic forecast is developed on the assumption that the military conflict in Ukraine will not escalate significantly, the situation in the region will begin to improve and the monetary policy of the National Bank will focus on preventing inflationary pressures and maintaining the stability of the national currency. Also, the forecast is based on the hypothesis that the capacity of local production will grow in response to lower imports from the countries involved in the conflict, and the climatic conditions will be favorable. At the same time, the Ministry of Economy emphasizes that there are still great risks and uncertainties about the situation in the region, which may affect the forecasted macro indicators. As a reminder, in 2019 Moldova's GDP grew by 3.7%, in 2020 - decreased by 8.4%, in 2022 - increased by 13.9% compared to the previous year. // 31.03.2022 - InfoMarket
