Fitch Ratings forecasts for Moldova 3% average GDP growth in 2026–2027
This is stated in a commentary by Fitch Ratings published in connection with the Moldovan authorities’ agreement on a new three-year cooperation program with the IMF, without financing. The rating agency notes that high energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East will test Moldova’s resilience (B+/Stable), intensifying inflationary pressures and exacerbating the structurally high current account deficit. The authorities’ policy responses, access to external financing, and stronger international reserve buffers help Moldova maintain both macroeconomic stability and withstand destabilizing pressures on the balance of payments. As a net energy importer, Moldova remains vulnerable to energy price volatility, with imports covering 63% of domestic demand. Electricity prices rose sharply in January 2025 following the suspension of supplies from Transnistria and have since stabilized at about 10% above pre-2025 levels. The state-owned company Energocom, which received a €400 million credit line from the EBRD in 2025 to purchase energy resources, typically procures natural gas through a combination of indexed forward (quarterly or annual) contracts, supplemented by short-term and spot purchases. Moldova does not have large domestic natural gas storage facilities and relies on Romania and Ukraine for this purpose. In recent years, Moldova’s vulnerability to geopolitical supply disruptions has decreased, mainly due to reduced dependence on Russian energy resources; however, its most critical power transmission line—Isaccea-Vulcanesti—runs through Ukraine and is susceptible to disruptions in the Ukrainian power grid, as occurred in late March. Authorities expect the 400 kV Vulcanesti-Chisinau power line to be commissioned in the second quarter of 2026. In March, Moldova declared 60-day state of emergency in the energy sector, including restrictions on the export and re-export of petroleum products, as well as mandatory energy-saving measures for public sector enterprises. Moldova imports most of its petroleum products from Romania, meaning it is only indirectly affected by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Rising energy prices quickly impacted inflation, which rose to 6.8% year-on-year in April 2026 from an average of 5.2% in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the 5% target set by the National Bank of Moldova (+/- 1.5 percentage points). The authorities liberalized the domestic natural gas market for large consumers effective April 1, creating the potential for further inflationary pressures. Anticipating a prolonged period of high inflation and seeking to limit the impact of secondary effects, the NBM raised the policy rate by 1.5 percentage points to 6.5% on May 7. Moldova is also highly exposed to electricity price volatility, as a portion of imports from Romania—the country’s largest source of electricity, alongside Ukraine—is conducted under “next-day” and spot contracts. However, average electricity purchase prices in Moldova fell by approximately 15% in April compared to the previous month, reaching 110.9 euros/MWh, which likely reflects seasonal demand and an increase in domestic electricity generation from renewable sources. Fitch believes that Moldova’s macroeconomic policy mix—including its commitment to an inflation target and exchange rate flexibility—has contributed to its ability to absorb external shocks, including energy supply disruptions in 2022 and the rapid transition to electricity imports from Europe in early 2025. The Moldovan leu (MDL) has remained broadly stable against the euro since the outbreak of the war with Iran, partly because pressure on the domestic foreign exchange market is limited. As of March 2026, net foreign exchange support from households covered 92% of net foreign exchange demand from economic agents, which is only slightly less than the 95% recorded in February. As of May 15, international reserves reached €5.2 billion ($6.1 billion), which is 3.3% above the pre-war level and equivalent to 5.1 months of current external payments. A longer-than-expected energy shortage, power outages, or related rationing measures—which are not included in Fitch’s current baseline scenario—pose risks to economic growth. In 2025, a severe energy crisis caused by supply disruptions from Transnistria led to a 1.1% year-on-year contraction in the economy in the first quarter of 2025 (although annual growth stood at 2.3%). Fitch currently expects average growth of 3% in 2026–2027. Experts note that energy imports are one of the main factors driving Moldova’s structurally very large current account deficit, which reached a record 19.5% of GDP in 2025 — 8.5 times higher than the median for countries with a “B” rating and the highest among countries rated by Fitch. Moldova has made significant progress in developing renewable energy, increasing installed capacity by 900% since 2022, although it will continue to rely on imports in the medium term. Fitch expects the current account deficit to average 18.3% of GDP in 2026–2027, with the potential for a further increase if the energy shock persists, although this is not our base case. Although net foreign direct investment covers only a small portion of the current account deficit, Moldova benefits from significant coverage by international reserves thanks to stable flows of concessional financing in 2026 (mainly from the EU, which allocated €189 million (1% of GDP in March), and the World Bank, which provided approximately €300 million (1.7% of GDP)). Official financing and potentially large volumes of remittances through informal channels help mitigate the vulnerability caused by large external deficits. In addition, on May 20, the IMF approved a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) for Moldova, which could serve as a policy anchor and accelerate official financing from other sources. // 27.05.2026 — InfoMarket.
