The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization has presented preliminary macroeconomic indicators for 2025-2028: annual GDP growth is expected to be around 3%
According to the Ministry, in January 2025, Moldova's economy felt the effects of the energy crisis caused by the suspension of natural gas transit through Ukraine. This led to a sharp (+75%) increase in electricity tariffs for end users, putting pressure on production costs and the overall price level in the economy. In this context, the macroeconomic forecast was revised downward, reflecting the negative impact of higher energy prices on economic activity. At the same time, according to the latest estimates of the National Bank, annual inflation will peak at 8.5% in the first quarter of 2025, exceeding the upper limit of the target range. Inflation will subsequently follow a downward trajectory, returning to the fluctuation range starting in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remaining within the target range until the end of the forecast horizon. However, despite these challenges, economic growth is estimated at around 2% in 2025, which is 1 percentage point less than envisaged in the autumn forecast, and will be supported by a number of positive factors, including the recovery of the agricultural sector, favorable dynamics of export-oriented services, resumption of private investment and measures to support economic development envisaged in the Moldovan Economic Growth Plan. These trends will help mitigate the negative impact of the energy shock and strengthen the basis for sustainable economic growth in the medium term. According to the macroeconomic forecast, in 2025, the Moldovan economy will grow by 2% - up to 351.1 billion lei, and in the following 3 years - from 2.4% to 3% annually. The average annual inflation rate will be 7.3% in 2025, and 6.1% as of the end of the year. In the next 3 years, these two indicators will be almost the same and will amount to 4.6-4.7% in 2026 and 5% in the next 2 years. In 2024, Moldova's GDP grew by 0.1%, and the average annual inflation rate was 4.7% (6.9% as of the end of the year). The growth rate of imports in the coming years will be lower than the growth rate of exports. Thus, in 2025, imports will grow by 3.4%, and in the next 3 years - by 6%, 5.2% and, respectively, 4.3%. Exports are expected to grow by 8.3% in 2025, and in the next 3 years - by 7.8%, 6.5% and, respectively, 5.9%. In 2024, exports decreased by 12.2%, and imports grew by 4.5%. The trade deficit will continue to grow: from the projected $5.52 billion in 2025 to $6.2 billion in 2028. The industrial sector is expected to grow by 3-3.5% in 2025-2028 - from 96.6 billion to 117.2 billion lei. Agricultural production in 2025, against the backdrop of a 14.6% decline last year, will grow by 14% in 2025. However, in the next 3 years, the dynamics will be weak - no more than 1-2% per year. The growth of investment in long-term tangible assets will amount to 3.5-3.7% per year. The forecast for the average annual exchange rate of the Moldovan leu (MDL) against the US dollar has been revised towards the depreciation of the national currency. Thus, the average annual exchange rate of the MDL is expected to be 18.83 lei per US dollar in 2025, 19.27 in 2026, 19.67 in 2027, 19.95 lei in 2028. The MDL exchange rate at the end of 2025 will be 19 lei per US dollar, and by the end of 2028 it may grow to 20.17 lei per US dollar. The salary forecast has been revised: the nominal average monthly salary will increase from 14,020 lei in 2024 to 15,800 lei in 2025 and to 20,900 lei in 2028. Its annual growth in nominal terms will fluctuate from 12.71% (in 2025) to 8.9% (in 2028). But in real terms, growth will be from 5.1% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2028. The wage fund will increase from 118.1 billion lei in 2025 to 154.6 billion lei in 2028. // 05.05.2025 – InfoMarket.
