The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization presented the main macroeconomic indicators for 2025-2027: some indicators have been adjusted
The Ministry's macroeconomic forecast for the next 3 years, updated in October, kept the estimation of Moldova's GDP dynamics at the same level (the previous data were published in July): in 2025, the GDP volume will amount to 358.7 billion lei and will grow to 429.1 billion lei by 2027, with annual growth of 3%, 3.3% and 3.7% in these 3 years, respectively. The Ministry said that after a weak recovery in 2023, the economy grew by 2.2% in the first half of 2024, reflecting improved investment activity and moderate consumption growth. By the end of the year, GDP growth is expected to be 2.4%. “Macroeconomic forecasts for 2025 assume consolidation of the recovery trajectory, with GDP growth projected at around 2.5-3%, which will be driven by an improved situation in the sector,” the agency's experts specify. Inflation is expected to stabilize around 5%, which is due to the focus of monetary policy to stabilize prices, especially for food and fuel, as well as due to government measures to ensure energy security to counter geopolitical risks. The average annual inflation rate and year-end inflation rates will be the same and will amount to 4.6% in 2025, and 5% each in the next 2 years (unchanged from the July forecast). Foreign trade forecasts are slightly adjusted: over the next 3 years, exports will grow by 8.9% in 2025, 7.1% in 2026, and 6.1% in 2027, while imports will grow less strongly in the respective years at 6.1%, 5.1%, and 4.7%, respectively. In 2024, exports are expected to decline by 10.1% and imports are expected to grow by 3.2%. The trade deficit will continue to grow from a projected $5.35 billion in 2024 to $5.98 billion in 2027. Growth in the industrial sector is expected to recover, but at a slower pace than previously projected, with annual growth of 3% to 3.5% (2% growth in 2024 after a 5.6% decline in 2023). The forecast for the agricultural sector has not changed: in the next 3 years the growth will be from 1.5% to 2%. But the forecast for the growth of investments in long-term tangible assets has slightly improved - by 3% in 2024 and by 3.3-3.7% annually in the next three years. The forecast for the average annual exchange rate of the Moldovan leu (MDL) has not changed: the leu will slightly strengthen against the American dollar (USD); the exchange rate is expected at 18.26 lei per dollar in 2025, 18.47 - in 2026, 18.67 - in 2027. The leu exchange rate at the end of 2025 will amount to 18.38 lei per dollar, and at the end of 2027 it may rise to 18.84 lei per dollar. The forecast for salaries is revised: the nominal average monthly salary will increase from 14.3 thousand lei in 2024 to 16.1 thousand lei by 2025 and to 19.5 thousand lei in 2027. Its annual growth in nominal terms will range from 17.1% (in 2024) to 9.6% (in 2027). But in real terms, growth will range from 4.3% to 11.8%. Labor remuneration fund will increase from 117.5 billion lei in 2024 to 147.8 billion lei in 2027 // 05.11.2024 – InfoMarket
