Since the introduction of the Moldovan leu in 1993, Moldova's nominal gross domestic product has increased by more than 150 times, but real GDP has not reached the 1991 level - Veaceslav Ionita
In his analysis, the economic expert noted that in 1985, GDP was 8.6 billion rubles, in 1991 - 25.9 billion rubles, in 1993 (when the national currency was introduced) - 2.2 billion lei, and the forecast for 2024 is 342.1 billion lei. Taking the year of independence - 1991 - as a benchmark, Veaceslav Ionita noted that in 1960, real GDP was 24.5% of 1991, in 1989 - 123.8% (the year of the historical maximum), in 2021 - 94.8%; the forecast for 2024 is 92.1% of the 1991 value. "At the time of independence, Moldova was already economically collapsing at a rapid pace. In 1999, GDP reached the level of 1965. It gradually grew, but never reached the level of 1991. Over the past 5 years, Moldova has practically stopped due to three crises," Veaceslav Ionita states. Analyzing the average annual GDP growth, the expert notes that in 1961-1970 it grew by 8.4%; in 1971-1980 - by 4.7%; in 1981-1989 - by 4%; in 1990-1999 - decreased by 11.2%; in 2000-2010 - minus 4.8%; in 2011-2019 - minus 4.1%; in 2020-2023 - minus 0.3%. Speaking about industrial production, taking 1991 as a basis, the expert noted that in 1960 it was 13.3% of 1991; in 1980 - 75.6%; in 1990 - 113.3%; in; 2019 - 76.6%; in 2023 - 74.2%. From 1960 to 1991, industrial production was constantly growing, but since independence this process has slowed down sharply. Considering the average annual industrial production indicator, the expert also noted that in 1961-1970 it grew by 10.8%; in 1971-1980 - by 7.4%; in 1981-1990 - by 4.1%; in 1991-1999 - decreased by 12%; in 2000-2005 - growth of 10.5%; in 2006-2020 - minus 3.8%; in 2011-2015 - growth of 5.3%; in 2016-2019 - growth of 2.5%; in 2020-2023 - minus 0.5%. "Moldova's industry needs many years to reach its previous level," the expert added. The total volume of agricultural production in 1980 was 113.5% of the 1991 figure. In 1987 - 134.4%; 2000 - 54.2%; 2010 - 60.9%; 2019 - 86%; 2020 - 62.7%; 2021 - 99.1%; and in 2023 - 87.3%. In Moldova's agriculture, since 1988, when changes in the structure of the industry began, the total volume of production began to decline, which, according to Veaceslav Ionița, is due to the transition to individual forms of farming, focused more on survival than on development. The population has significantly decreased: in 1991, it was 4.34 million people, of which 3.6 million were on the right bank of the Dniester. By 2024, this figure had dropped to 2.72 million, which means a loss of more than 1.6 million people, of which 1.18 million are from the right bank of the Dniester. Veaceslav Ioniță noted that Moldova is the country with the largest population decline in Europe. The employment situation is far from ideal: in 1991, the country had 1.5 million workers and 582 thousand pensioners. The forecast for 2024 is 625 thousand workers and 530 thousand pensioners. Since 1991, the number of workers in the country has decreased by 900 thousand, of which 600 thousand in the last 15 years, and at the moment, the Moldovan economy is not able to recover these losses. "We have not found solutions for economic growth and job creation," the expert said. The average salary in the country has grown from 143.2 lei in 1995 to a projected 14,200 lei in 2024, pensions - from 62.4 lei to 3,850 lei. Meanwhile, the average salary on the left bank of the Dniester is half as much - 7,050 lei. "When we became independent, the welfare of Moldovan citizens was already rapidly deteriorating. It accelerated in 1991 and continued until 1993. During these 3 years, real incomes of the population fell 5 times. By 2008, they reached the level of 1991, and today the incomes of Moldovan citizens are 2 times higher than in 1991, even higher than in 1983, when they were the highest since the USSR. However, in the last 3 years, incomes have practically not grown. "The inflation caused by the crisis was very high," said Veaceslav Ionita. Analyzing the property of individuals, the expert notes that in 1991 it amounted to $1.4 billion and was expressed in investments in real estate. In 1995 - $6.6 billion, of which $6.1 billion was real estate and $500 million were financial resources. The forecast for 2024 is $56.8 billion, of which $53.5 billion and $3.3 billion were financial resources. "The wealth of Moldovan citizens has grown by about 40 times compared to 1991," the expert wrote. Speaking about cars registered in Moldova, Veaceslav Ionita specified that in 1970 there were 15.4 thousand units in the country, or 5 cars per 1,000 residents. In 1991 - 155 thousand units, or 43 cars per 1,000 residents; according to the forecast for 2024 - 825 thousand units or 344 cars per 1000 residents. "The Republic of Moldova as an independent state found itself in a deep crisis, which began much earlier than 1991. We are poor not because we became independent, but because the Soviet economic system collapsed, and we found ourselves in extreme poverty. And over the past 4 years, the country has experienced three crises, and this has never happened in our history," the expert concluded.// 23.08.2024 — InfoMarket.
