Consumer loans taken by individuals from commercial banks have broken all records, both in volume and quantity - Veaceslav Ionita
As noted by an economic policy expert at the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives Viitorul, in 2015, Moldovan citizens received 45.4 thousand loans; in 2019 - 91.4 thousand; in 2020 - 75.1 thousand; 2021 - 132.2 thousand; 2022 - 85.8 thousand; 2023 - 123.3 thousand; and in the first half of this year - 90.4 thousand. In total, from 2015 to the present, commercial banks have issued 162.7 thousand consumer loans to individuals. In the first half of 2024, were issued 50.9 thousand consumer loans, which is 5% of households. This is 25% more than the previous record of the second quarter of 2021 (40 thousand loans). In the third quarter of 2021, 39.5 thousand loans were taken out. “In the second quarter of this year, on an annualized basis, we reached 162.7 thousand loans taken by Moldovans from banks. In a calm state, we will reach 180 thousand loans taken by the end of the year,” said Veaceslav Ionita. According to the expert, the volume of money issued for consumption also broke a record. In 2015, the volume of consumer loans in annual terms amounted to 2.3 billion lei. In 2019 it increased to 6.2 billion lei; in 2020 - 5.6 billion lei; in 2021 - up to 9.7 billion lei; in 2022 - 6.8 billion lei; in 2023 - 10.5 billion lei, in the second quarter of 2024 - 11.5 billion lei. “In April, May and June of this year, Moldovans took out consumer loans from banks in the amount of 3.4 billion lei. This is the highest amount in history. Previously, there were two similar records - in the third quarters of 2021 and 2023, when consumer loans worth about 2.9 billion lei were taken out. We can end the year with an indicator of 13 billion lei in consumer loans taken from banks,” says Veaceslav Ionita. Having analyzed the situation over the past 15 years, the economist also found out during what period Moldovans took out the most consumer loans from banks. Thus, most loans are taken out during the hot period of the year: June (9.7%), July (9.6%), August (9.4%) and September (8.7%), as well as December (8.9%). The economist reported on the average size of a consumer loan that in 2015 it amounted to 50.9 thousand lei; in 2020 - 74.4 thousand lei; in 2023, in the third quarter it reached 80.6 thousand lei, and in the second quarter of 2024 it decreased to 66.6 thousand lei. “With a decrease in interest rates, with an increase in the availability of loans, with an increase in the culture of consumption based on credit, Moldovan citizens take out consumer loans not only for the purchase of expensive goods, but also for the purchase of goods of lower value,” the economist said. The pressure of consumer loans on family budgets is currently 2 times less than in 2015. In 2015, to repay a loan, a family needed 13.6 average monthly salaries, in 2020 - 11.2 average monthly salaries, in 2022 - 8.8; in 2023 - 6.7, 2024, in the second quarter of 2024 - 5.9 average monthly salaries. The weighted average interest rate on consumer loans in lei in 2015 was 15.5%, in the third quarter of 2021 it decreased to 4.6%, in the first quarter of 2023 it increased to 16.4%, and in the second quarter of 2024 decreased to 11% per annum. “Our money is starting to get cheaper. After discouraging borrowing and encouraging saving in 2023, the National Bank is now beginning to encourage borrowing and discourage saving. We see an acceleration in consumer lending,” says the economic analyst. The balance of consumer loans in banks in 2000 amounted to 100 million lei; in 2010 - 2.1 billion lei; in 2015 - 3.1 billion lei; in 2020 - 7.5 billion lei; in the second quarter of 2022 - 10.8 billion lei; in the first quarter of 2023 - 9.8 billion lei; in the second quarter of 2024 - 12.6 billion lei. The debt of the population as a result of turning to consumer loans in 2000 was 0.4%; in 2005 - 1.8%; in 2010 - 2.5%; in 2015 - 2.1%; in 2020 - 3.7%; in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 - 4.4%; in the first quarter of 2023 – 3.5%; in the second quarter of 2024 - 4.1%. Speaking about the share of consumer loans in the total volume of bank loans, Veaceslav Ionita noted the positive exposure of banks: in 2000, the share of consumer loans in the total volume of bank loans was 3.6%; in 2002 - 2.7%; in 2007 - 14.4%; in 2012 - 5.8%; in 2019 - 16.9%; in 2021 - 18.6%; in 2022 - 16.2%; in the second quarter of 2024 - 18.1%. At the same time, the expert notes that the goods that borrowers buy with consumer loans are imported. “Every 5th lei that banks offer as a loan goes to the purchase of imported goods, which does not benefit the domestic economy,” the expert notes. He also talks about the growing share of consumer loans in the annual official income of citizens. In 2000, their share was 1.7%, in 2005 – 5.5%, in 2010 – 6.9%, in 2015 – 6.4%, in 2021 – 11.1%, in 2023 - 8.5%, in the second quarter of 2024 - 9.4%. “Commercial banks have a huge excess of liquidity and are looking for solutions. Until 2015, consumer lending was not considered by banks as a solution to liquidity and lending problems. But since people in Moldova began to receive higher incomes, banks already see them as real clients. Now we are seeing a weakening of monetary policy, which is conducive to the growth of consumer lending. We are now seeing the beginning of an acceleration. We will have record after record,” concluded the economic analyst. // 16.08.2024 — InfoMarket. // 16.08.2024 — InfoMarket.
