The Ministry of Finance presented a draft budget forecast for the medium term (2024-206).
The budget forecast for the medium term is the main document on the basis of which the country's annual budget is developed. It is based on macroeconomic forecasts prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalization in March 2023, a draft fiscal policy, and a sectoral spending plan. The Moldovan economy is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2023, by 3.5% in 2024, by 4% in 2025, and by 4.5% in 2026. The average annual inflation rate in 2023 will be 13.5%, and in the next 3 years it will return to the established corridor within 5-5.5%. At the end of 2023, the inflation rate will be 6%. In the next 3 years, the growth of foreign trade indicators will be more moderate than in the previous 2 years: exports will grow by 8.2% in 2024, by 7.2% in 2025, by 7.5% in 2026, imports - by 4.4%, 5.2% and 4.8%, respectively. The trade balance deficit will exceed 5 billion lei annually. Growth is expected to recover in the industrial sector (by 4.5-5% annually). Agricultural production, against the background of last year's decline of almost 30%, is expected to grow by 15% in 2023, and the annual growth until 2026 will be 2-2.3%. In 2023, the volume of investments in long-term tangible assets will slightly increase (+1.5% against the backdrop of last year's decline by 11.6%), in the next 3 years they will grow by 4.5-5.5%. The average annual exchange rate of the Moldovan leu in 2023 will be 18.99 per dollar, and in the next 3 years the leu will depreciate slightly (19.16 in 2024, 19.4 in 2025, 19.62 in 2026). The exchange rate of the lei at the end of the year will be 19.18 lei/$1, and by the end of 2026 it may rise to 19.69 lei/$1. The nominal average monthly salary will increase from 11,850 lei in 2023 to 15,800 lei in 2026. Its annual growth in nominal terms will be from 9.7% to 13.9%. However, in real terms, in 2023, the growth will be 0.4%, in the next 3 years - 4.5-4.8%. The payroll fund will increase from 88.7 billion lei in 2023 to 119.2 billion lei in 2026. According to the draft budget forecast for the medium term, the revenues of the national public budget are estimated at about 100.4 billion lei, for 2025 - at 113.2 billion lei, and in 2026 they will reach 122.4 billion lei (for 2023 it was approved in the amount of 100.6 billion lei). The revenues of the national public budget to GDP will decrease from 32.6% in 2023 to 29.3% - in 2026. The expenditures of the national public budget in 2024 are projected at the level of 121.9 billion lei, in 2025 - 127.5 billion lei, in 2026 - 136.5 billion lei (in the current year, the expenditures of the national public budget were approved in the amount of 119.1 billion lei). In relation to GDP, the share of expenditures will also decrease, from 38.6% in 2023 to 32.7%. The budget deficit is expected to decrease from 18.5 billion lei (-6% of GDP) in 2023 to 16.5 billion lei in 2024 (-4.9%), and in the next 2 years - 14.3 billion lei and, respectively, 14.1 billion lei (-3.8% and -3.4% of GDP). In the medium term, the annual growth of revenues of the national public budget is expected by an average of 6.7%. Taxes and fees will account for about 65% of the national public budget 's revenues, mainly from taxes on goods and services. In the next 3 years, the share of this income group will grow by 7.8% annually. The share of social and compulsory health insurance contributions will increase from 29.6% to 30.9% due to the growth of the payroll fund by an average of 10%. In 2024-2026 a decrease in the share of grants in the structure of income of the national public budget is forecasted - from 1.3% to 0.9%. As for expenditures, most of them, traditionally, will be directed to social protection - on average, almost 40% of expenditures per year. In 2024, in absolute terms, the amount of social spending will not change (due to the redirection of budget funds from compensating the population for the difference in the price of electricity to indexing social benefits), and in 2025-2026 these costs will grow by 6.3% annually. Spending on the economic sphere will grow by 22% in 2026 compared to 2023, and on healthcare by 20.8%. The amount of expenses financed from external sources will increase from 4.4 billion lei in 2023 to 5.03 billion lei in 2026. About 40% of the funds will be used to implement projects in the transport sector, 10% - in the housing and communal services sector, 9.3% - in agriculture, 8% - in healthcare. The budget forecast for the medium term project is to be approved by the government.// 16.06.2023 — InfoMarket.
