The Vienna Institute for International Economic Research predicts that Moldova's GDP will grow by 7% in 2021, and this will be the strongest economic growth this year among 23 countries in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe.
According to the Institute's experts, Moldova, Montenegro and Serbia will demonstrate in 2021 the strongest economic recovery after the pandemic among the countries of Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE), for which they make their forecasts. The economy of Moldova is expected to grow by 7% in 2021, Montenegro - by 6.5%, and Serbia - by 6%. As follows from the new economic forecast of the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research, among other countries of South-Eastern Europe, high GDP growth will also be achieved this year in Turkey - 5.8%, Kosovo - 5.3%, Romania - 5.2%, Croatia - 5.1%, Albania - 5%. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Research predicts that Moldova's GDP growth in 2022 will be 4.5%, and in 2023 - 4%. According to forecasts of its experts, inflation in Moldova in 2021 is expected at 3.6%, in 2022 - 4.2%, and in 2023 - 4.5%. Experts from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research noted that in the first quarter of 2021, Moldova's GDP grew by 1.8%, exceeding the level of 2020 and offsetting the serious decline associated with COVID. Experts believe that the Moldovan economy has gained momentum despite ongoing restrictions related to COVID. Manufacturing production increased by 3%, and in construction - by 8%. Real wages rose by 10%, while employment remained at the 2020 level. An increase in gross fixed capital formation by more than 14% supported GDP growth. The trade deficit increased in the first quarter of this year after a temporary cut last year. COVID-19 infection rates have declined in recent months despite sluggish vaccination. In this regard, experts revised the forecast for economic growth in Moldova for 2021 from 4% to 7%, assuming that there will be no serious restrictions, and agriculture will recover from last year's recession. By the end of the year, inflation may reach 4.5%. Analysts believe that an improved external environment - especially a strong recovery in Romania - could stimulate the Moldovan economy in the future. As noted, Moldova can receive from the EU a package of assistance for economic recovery in the amount of 600 million euros in grants and loans over a three-year period, subject to judicial and anti-corruption reforms. “If pro-European forces win the early elections scheduled for July 11, Moldova will finally be able to find an anchor in the West, but Russia's response may be a problem,” experts from the Vienna Institute for International Economic Research note. As InfoMarket reported earlier, Moldova's GDP in the first quarter of 2021 amounted to 46.5 billion lei and grew by 1.8% in real terms, compared to the same period in 2020. The IMF predicts that Moldova's GDP in 2021 will be will grow by 4.5%, and in 2022 - by 4%. The World Bank expects GDP growth in Moldova in 2021 and 2022 at 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively. The EBRD has raised its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2021 from 3.5% to 4.5%, and in 2022 it expects the country's economy to grow by 4%. Moldova's GDP in 2020 amounted to 206.35 billion lei and decreased by 7% compared to 2019.The budget of Moldova for 2021 was adjusted taking into account the economic growth projected for this year by 4.7% and inflation at level of 2.7%. Recently, macroeconomic forecasts were revised, and now the Ministry of Economy and Infrastructure expects real GDP growth in Moldova in 2021 to be 6%, in 2022 - 4.2%, and in the next two years - 4% each. It is expected that in nominal terms, the volume of GDP in 2021 will amount to 227.7 billion lei, in 2022 - 248.8 billion lei, in 2023 - 271.3 billion lei, in 2024 - 292.8 billion lei. // 08.07.2021 — InfoMarket
