The EBRD raised its forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2021 from 3.5% to 4.5%, and in 2022 expects the growth of our country's economy at the level of 4%.
These data are presented in the bank's new, June review of the regional economy (Regional Economic Prospects in the EBRD Regions). In a similar review in September 2020, experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted that in 2021 Moldova's GDP growth will amount to 3.5%. At the same time, then they lowered the forecast for the dynamics of Moldova's GDP in 2021 by 1.5 percentage points, since in the previous edition of Regional Economic Prospects in the EBRD Regions in May 2020 it was said that the EBRD expects in 2021 in our country GDP growth at the level of 5%. In the September issue of Regional Economic Prospects in the EBRD Regions, EBRD experts lowered their forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2021 from 5% to 3.5%, noting that the Covid-19 crisis had a serious negative impact on the already slowing economy of Moldova, and all sectors of the economy experienced a significant decline last year. In a new June Regional Economic Review, EBRD experts noted that Moldova's economy will recover in 2021 after a 7% decline in 2020, amid growing export demand and a recovery in household consumption in the country. Analysts point out that exports and private consumption fell by 15.5% and 7%, respectively, in 2020, while investment in fixed assets fell by 2.1%. On the production side, agriculture was the main contributor to the economic downturn, declining by 27.1%. The current account deficit narrowed from 9.3% of GDP in 2019 to 6.7% at the end of 2020, and was mainly financed by debt instruments. International reserve assets in May 2021 remained at a high level and amounted to $ 3.8 billion. EBRD experts note that Moldova has fiscal space to continue a comprehensive support package focused on medium-term recovery. Short-term indicators suggest that the Moldovan economy is on the path to recovery in 2021. Remittances from abroad through banks in favor of Moldovan individuals were exceptionally high in the first 4 months of 2021, an increase of 39.1% compared to the same period in 2020. Industrial production increased by 17.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021. Exports of Moldovan goods in March 2021 compared to March 2020 year, increased by 36.6%, and in general, supplies abroad of domestic products in the first quarter of 2021 increased by 5.6%, compared to the same period in 2020, mainly due to an increase in exports to EU market. Annual inflation (over the last 12 months) in May 2021 in Moldova amounted to 3.1%, which is lower than the target of 5%. EBRD experts said that in this regard, they forecast Moldova's GDP growth in 2021 at the level of 4.5%, and in 2022 - at the level of 4%. They pointed out that since Moldova is highly integrated into global supply chains, especially in the automotive industry, such a pace of economic recovery is largely dependent on the overall recovery of the global economy. // 29.06.2021 — InfoMarket
