This is the conclusion reached by Veaceslav Ioniță and Igor Munteanu, experts at the Institute for Development and Social Initiatives, in their study "The Transnistrian Region in 2026: Structural Crisis, Economic Convergence, and Prospects for Reintegration," prepared in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung Moldova. According to the authors' estimates, in 2025 the region's GDP had contracted by approximately 19.4%, and industrial output by nearly 20%. GDP per capita stood at about $4,000, compared to $8,500 on the right bank of the Dniester. The average salary in the region was roughly half that of the right bank, and the average pension was about 1,900 lei, less than half the right bank's figure of 4,200 lei. At the same time, the Transnistrian region continues to lose population and labor resources. The registered population has declined from 731,000 people in 1990 to 460,000 in 2025, and the authors of the study estimate the actual population residing in the region at 295,000 people. Experts note that long-term access to gas on preferential terms has made it possible to sustain energy-intensive enterprises and keep tariffs low, but at the same time has weakened incentives for modernization, investment, and productivity growth. In the region's 2026 budget, approximately 40% of expenditures are planned to be covered by revenues from natural gas sales. At the same time, Transnistria's economic ties are increasingly oriented toward Europe: in 2025, approximately 77% of the region's exports went to the European Union. The market on the right bank is also of significant importance to Transnistrian enterprises, and their foreign economic activity depends on Moldova's trade documentation, customs procedures, and financial infrastructure. According to experts, this indicates that economic integration between the two banks is already taking place and requires systematization and the establishment of predictable rules. The study examines four possible scenarios: maintaining the status quo, an acceleration of the economic crisis, gradual economic reintegration, and full political and institutional reintegration. Ioniță and Munteanu consider phased economic reintegration to be the most realistic option, involving the gradual harmonization of tax and customs regulations, expanded access to financing, protection of the rights of businesses and citizens, as well as investments in infrastructure and public services. To support this process, the authors propose utilizing the Convergence Fund, whose resources should be directed toward specific projects benefiting communities on the left bank. The authors of the study warn that maintaining the status quo will not ensure that the region's economy remains at its current level: depopulation will continue, the competitiveness of businesses will decline, and social systems will become more vulnerable. In this regard, they assess that the choice effectively lies between a preemptive economic transformation and a forced adjustment driven by a deepening crisis. The study is available in Romanian, English, and Russian. // 27.10.2026 — InfoMarket.