The EBRD has maintained its forecast for Moldova for the current and next year and expects a decline in its GDP by 1.3% in 2023, and growth by 3.5% in 2024.
Such data are provided in the Bank's May review of the Regional Economic Prospects. Experts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development note that the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the shock in the energy supply led to a decline in the Moldovan economy by 5.9% in 2022. The same factors still affect the Moldovan economy in 2023, although in the second half of the year, some improvement is likely. The EBRD materials say that the risks associated with proximity to the war zone continue to affect investment activity, which exacerbates the effect of a sharp drop in real incomes of the population. At the same time, on the positive side, domestic inflation is declining rapidly on the back of monetary tightening and weak domestic demand. External financing provided by the official sector closed the gap in external and fiscal financing in 2022, supported the exchange rate and helped replenish foreign exchange reserves. According to EBRD experts, such support is likely to continue in 2023, in combination with an expanded IMF program, which will contribute to macroeconomic stability. However, according to EBRD analysts, in 2023 Moldova's GDP is likely to contract by another 1.3%, after which growth will resume in 2024, which is projected at 3.5%. “In the short term, there are significant negative risks associated with a war in the neighborhood and energy vulnerability. In the medium and long term, the prospect of Moldova's accession to the EU could be a powerful catalyst for structural reforms and stronger economic growth,” says the EBRD's new May Regional Economic Review. As InfoMarket agency reported earlier, the International Monetary Fund predicts Moldova's GDP growth in 2023 at the level of 2%, in 2024 - by 4.3%, and in 2025 - by 5%. Earlier, the World Bank improved the forecast for Moldova's GDP growth in 2023 by 0.2 percentage points - from 1.6% to 1.8%, but kept the forecast for economic growth in 2024 at 4.2%. Moldova's GDP in 2022 amounted to 272.6 billion lei and decreased in real terms, compared to 2021 by 5.9%.// 16.05.2023 — InfoMarket.
