The Monitorul Oficial published the Budgetary forecast for the medium term (2023-2025).
This is the main document on the basis of which the annual budget of the country is developed. It is based on emerging crises, new socio-economic risks and macroeconomic forecasts made in August 2022. The forecast takes into account stronger growth in imports of goods and services, the war in Ukraine, difficulties in international supply chains of goods, hydrological drought, slowdown in external and domestic demand. It is assumed that GDP growth in 2022 will be zero, and in the forecast period the national economy will continue to expand: the growth rate will be 1.5% in 2023, 3.6% in 2024, 4.2% in 2025. The average annual inflation rate is projected at 29.5% this year and 33.8% at the end of the year, and inflation will grow more moderately in the next 3 years: in 2023, the average annual inflation growth is projected at 15.7 % (at the end of the year - 6.9%), in 2024 - 5.9% (5%), and in 2025 both indicators will be 5%. At the same time, the continuation of the current economic crisis, a more pronounced increase in inflation in the medium term, an increase in international prices for agri-food products and uncertainty about the results of the Moldovan agricultural sector in 2022-2023 may negatively affect the basic macroeconomic forecast both in terms of productivity and prices. According to general estimates, based on the existing fiscal base, the revenues of the National Public Budget (NPB) will increase from 100.5 billion lei in 2023 to 115.5 billion lei in 2025, while expenditures will increase from 119.06 billion lei to 130.3 billion lei. The deficit of the national public budget is projected in 2023 at the level of 18.5 billion lei (6% of GDP), in 2024 - 16.5 billion lei (4.9% of GDP), in 2025 - 14.7 billion lei (4% of GDP). In 2022, the approved and modified revenues of the national public budget amount to 89.6 billion lei, expenditures - 106.8 billion lei, deficit - 17.2 billion lei (6.2% of GDP). Thus, according to the baseline scenario, budget revenues in 2025 will be 28.9% higher than in 2022, while expenditures will increase by 22%. Growth in medium-term revenues will be supported by nominal GDP growth, increased foreign trade, increased excise rates, and improved tax administration. The share of taxes and fees in the income structure of the National Public Budget will increase from 63.8% in 2023 to 65.9% in 2025, while the share of social and health insurance contributions will increase from 28.3% to 30.1%. In the next 3 years, the share of external grants in the structure of income is expected to decrease from 4.3% to 0.8%, while the share of grants for budgetary support in the total structure of grants will increase from 65% to 74%, depending on new agreements signed with development partners. At the same time, the National Public Budget spending will increase in nominal terms, but in relation to GDP, their share will decrease from 38.6% in 2023 to 35.5% in 2025. Within 3 years, the share of spending on social protection and defense is expected to increase by 32.5% and 75.5%, respectively, and for other categories of spending, a slight increase or decrease is forecasted. The share of spending on salaries of public sector employees will increase from 7.9% of GDP in 2023 to 8.1% in 2025. In the medium term, the share of public debt in GDP is expected to decrease from 40.4% at the end of 2022 to 39.5% at the end of 2025, which is explained by higher GDP growth rates compared to the growth rate of the public debt balance (this figure will increase from 103.3 billion lei at the end of 2022 to 145.1 billion lei at the end of 2025).// 11.11.2022 — InfoMarket
