Veaceslav Ionita: In 2021, Moldova is expected to have the largest growth in population consumption over the past 15 years.
The IDIS Viitorul expert believes that this year the official consumption in the country will increase by 35-40 billion lei, reaching a total volume of 150 billion lei. The last time we had such an increase was in 2005-2006, when, after the mass departure of citizens to work abroad, there was a euphoria of consumption in Moldova. Then there was a period of calm, and this year we will have growth again. The expert argues that most of the consumption of the country's citizens is covered by imports. “When salaries and pensions rise, when money is pumped into the economy or the volume of loans increases, Moldovans most often go and buy imported products. In 2021, we will break several records in foreign trade, and the first record will be associated with an increase in imports, which, as we expect, this year will exceed $ 7 billion, which is $ 1.5 billion more than in previous years, ”- said the expert. The expert explains the increase in consumption, among other things, by the transition from informal to formal consumption: more and more people are buying in stores than in markets, as well as "deferred demand" - money for purchases that were not made last year due to the pandemic are spent this year. Also, the growth in consumption was affected by the recovery of previous consumption and the rise in prices. Speaking about the sources of financing for consumption, the economist said that it is about increasing salaries, loans, remittances and the use of savings. Last year and this year in Moldova, the average salary in the economy increased by about 1 thousand lei, so citizens have more money. Herewith, over the past 5 years, the volume of lending both in the banking and non-banking sectors increased by 6.2 billion lei. As for remittances, Ionita believes that their volume this year is likely to reach an all-time high of at least $ 1.7 billion. “More and more money is coming into the country, and it is still going to be consumed,” the expert says. At the same time, the expert notes that high consumption does not increase the economy, does not increase production and does not satisfy the needs of economic agents in consumption, but leads to an increase in imports, and our economy is becoming more and more fragile, and, as a result, prices are also growing, although it has a favorable effect on the country's budget in the form of VAT and excise taxes. // 25.10.2021 — InfoMarket.
